THU 4 DEC 2008

annuities By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Many owners of variable annuities have endured a double whammy lately: Their investment-account balances have taken a hit, as have the financial-strength ratings on the insurers that issued their annuities. http://louis5j5sheehan.blogspot.com

Agents and brokers say they've received a flood of calls from clients in recent weeks concerned about the safety of their variable annuities, in part fueled by the stock-market turmoil and the government rescue of insurer American International Group Inc.

Regulators and consumer advocates say life-insurance companies rarely have failed and seldom do so suddenly, so there is no need for alarm. And in the rare instance a company becomes insolvent, states ensure that guaranty funds protect both cash values and death benefits up to certain limits.

And taking rash action is a potentially costly move: Cashing out of a variable annuity early can invoke surrender charges, generally as high as 10% for as long as 10 years. Those who cash out before age 59½ also face tax liabilities and penalties.

In all, there were 35.1 million individual annuity contracts in force at the end of 2007, with a total value exceeding $2.02 trillion, according to LIMRA International, a nonprofit industry group that compiles life-insurance data, and Morningstar Inc. Here are answers to some common questions investors may have about annuities:

Q: How do annuities work?

A: Annuities are tax-deferred insurance contracts bought once, or with a series of payments, that offer the owners either a lump sum or a series of payouts after an accumulation period. Unlike other retirement vehicles such as an individual retirement account or a 401(k), annuities have no legal limits on tax-deferred contributions. http://ljsheehan.blogspot.com

Q: What's the difference between fixed and variable annuities?

A: Fixed annuities earn a guaranteed interest rate during a certain period. They are backed by assets in an insurance company's general account, usually bonds. Fixed annuities depend entirely on the financial soundness of insurers, which are regulated primarily by state insurance departments.

Variable annuities can also come with guaranteed benefits, such as a death benefit and a minimum return, riders for which the buyers generally pay extra. In other ways, though, they're quite different: A portion of deposits go to the insurance company to cover administrative costs and guaranteed benefits; the rest is invested in a portfolio of mutual fund-like investments. These accounts are separate from the rest of the insurance contract and belong to the annuity owner, so they're not as vulnerable to the insurer's fate.

Variable annuities, however, are more exposed to market risks. If annuity owners' investments perform well, there's the potential upside of a bigger payout. But if they do poorly, as many have recently, income falls, too. Investors can shift their fund holdings, however, to lower-volatility choices such as bond funds.

Q: How have annuities been affected by recent market conditions?

A: Many variable annuities have gone through the same gut-churning volatility as mutual funds in general. Partly as a result, while sales fixed annuities rose 39% in the first six months of 2008 from a year earlier, sales of variable annuities overall declined 6% in the same period, according to LIMRA International.

Q: Should I be worried if the share price of my insurer declines?

A: Not necessarily. In some cases, analysts say, publicly traded insurance companies' stock prices have plunged partly because of their efforts to raise capital. And while raising capital can dilute existing shares, it also improves an insurer's ability to pay claims. Hence, a decline in the stock value of a company doesn't always spell immediate trouble for annuities or life-insurance policies.

Q: Should I worry if the financial-strength rating of my insurer declines?

A: Possibly. Financial-strength ratings, supplied by rating agencies, are an evaluation of the ability of a company to make good on its guarantees. A slip from an excellent financial-strength rating from one of the five agencies -- Fitch Inc., A.M. Best Co., Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's or TheStreet.com -- to a slightly lower rating that is still in the secure range isn't cause for alarm, experts say. But multiple downgrades are a good reason to keep an eye on the company.

Through Sept. 30, 6.5% of the life/annuity and health-insurance companies followed by rating agency A.M. Best had been downgraded, though most remained in the "secure" range, meaning they are still regarded as financially sound.

Of course, buyers of new annuities should only buy from top-rated companies, consumer advocates say. You can find information on financial strength of companies licensed in your state by linking to your state's insurance department, at www.naic.org, the Web site of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. http://louis2j2sheehan2esquire.us

Q: What happens when a company founders?

A: State regulators usually monitor struggling companies and work with them to try to get additional capital -- or to sell the company to a stronger insurer that can make good on all of its claims. State receivers, who include the state insurance commissioner of the company's home state, often help find other insurers to take over the annuities from the troubled company. Annuity owners then make payments to the new company and collect payouts from it. Otherwise the terms of the annuity usually remain the same.

Q: What happens if no insurer wants to take over the annuity contracts of a failed insurer?

A: If an insurer is declared insolvent by a court and is liquidated, state laws require companies to pay annuity (and insurance policy) owners first and in full before paying claims of other creditors. State guaranty associations -- funded by other insurers -- then make good on the annuities and policies. Death benefits, for instance, are often protected up to $300,000. Cash values are often protected to a maximum of $100,000. (See www.nolhga.com, the National Organization of Life and Health Insurance Guaranty Associations, for state-by-state terms.)

With variable annuities, as with fixed contracts, the associations protect the death benefits, guaranteed minimums, and other contract guarantees. But investment account losses because of market declines generally aren't covered.

Q: What are my options if my insurer is at risk of insolvency?

A: Regulators and consumer groups warn that annuity owners, especially those who bought contracts recently, often stand to lose more when rashly surrendering an annuity than they would risk from the insurance company's failure. That's because the guaranty funds protect their money up to legal limits, while surrender charges and other penalties can take a chunk of an annuity's balance.

Check with your state insurance department for updates about the financial strength of insurers. If your annuity contract is still in the surrender period, often five to seven years, and the contract is below state guaranty limits, you may decide to wait and see if the company can muddle through. But if your surrender period is over or nearly finished, and a company has deteriorated enough to make you uncomfortable, you could consider a Section 1035 tax-free exchange, named for a section of the Internal Revenue Code, into another annuity contract from a higher-rated insurer. http://louis2j2sheehan2esquire.usDon't forget, however, that starting a new contract will involve a new surrender period and charges, new commissions and new fees.

Don't allow a sales rep from a competing company to scare you, however, into replacing an annuity. There are state laws against "poaching" customers by making false claims about the financial condition of another insurer.

THU 4 DEC 2008

lincoln By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

For years, variable annuities got a bad rap thanks to the high fees charged to buyers. Now stockholders of several life insurers that sell these financial products are worried they are the ones who got a raw deal.  http://louis-j-sheehan.info

Shares of Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. are down 80% so far this year, and shares of Lincoln National Corp. and Prudential Financial Inc. are off 61% and 56%, respectively. Among the concerns: Will mounting costs in the market downdraft force some insurers that sell these products -- many of which guarantee at least some kind of return to holders regardless of market conditions -- to raise more capital to satisfy regulatory requirements?  http://louis2j2sheehan.us

Across Wall Street, analysts are digging through financial filings and grilling executives in conference calls to better understand the risks in what rose last year to a $180 billion business in sales, according to industry estimates.

Fitch Ratings in a report last month estimated that capital needed to support the variable-annuity business had increased by as much as $15 billion across the U.S. life-insurance industry year-to-date, thanks largely to the dramatic decline in the markets.

Among the questions analysts are asking: Which firms have products that would leave them most vulnerable, how reliant are the companies on those product lines and how plump are their capital cushions?

Companies are trying to deliver assurance. On Monday, Hartford released a statement saying, among other things, that it had more than ample capital to meet regulatory requirements, and had capital above the level ratings agencies generally require for a prestigious financial-strength rating, which Hartford enjoys. Its shares soared.http://louis-j-sheehan.com

"The devil is in the details as to which [product] is the most risky," says Scott Robinson, a senior credit officer at Moody's Investors Service. "The impact to a company depends on how they manage the risk and how material the block of business is to the overall organization." Colin Devine, an analyst at Citigroup Global Markets, says analysts expect to cull more information on where insurers stand from third-quarter filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission due by mid-November.  http://louis-j-sheehan.net

Variable annuities are akin to individual retirement accounts: A customer's upfront payments go into tax-deferred investment funds. Variable annuities often guarantee that if the investor dies, heirs will at least get back the original investment, a "death benefit."

As competition heightened for baby boomers' money in the past five years, insurers rolled out revved-up versions, including "guaranteed minimum income benefits" for life and "guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits" over specified periods.

In general, the more guarantees, the more capital needs to be set aside to deliver them. While many of the guarantees don't come due for five or more years, the regulatory requirements can be stiff. Some of the new guarantees "are potentially the riskiest liabilities the industry has ever underwritten," Mr. Devine says.

Adding to the pressure: Insurers' ability to compete in sales depends on maintaining strong ratings, and ratings agencies take into account an insurer's excess-capital cushion. Also, as assets under management have shrunk with the market's drop, so have fees insurers earn pegged to those assets.

If markets improve, worries about insurer shares will likely ease. And many insurers have complex hedging programs in place aimed at reducing earnings volatility from the guarantees. If they work, they should reassure investors. But the extreme market volatility of September and October left some insurers exposed to liabilities they were aiming to avoid, while the cost of adding new hedges has spiked.

"Whether all of the hedges will perform as expected is still to be written," says Larry Mayewski, an executive vice president at ratings firm A.M. Best Co.

The five biggest sellers in the U.S. in this year's first half, representing just over 40% of sales, were units of ING Groep NV, AXA SA, TIAA-CREF, MetLife Inc. and Lincoln National, in that order, according to consulting firm Towers Perrin. A spokesman for TIAA-CREF, which does not trade publicly, said the firm "does not offer these costly and complex products," but instead sells low-cost annuities. http://louis5j5sheehan.blogspot.com

ING declined to comment, saying it is in a quiet period before earnings, while a spokesman for AXA's U.S. operations said, "While Axa Equitable is certainly not immune from the market conditions, we do have a strong balance sheet, conservatively managed assets, disciplined risk management and adequate resources to meet customer obligations."

A MetLife executive told analysts in a conference call last week that the insurer's exposure to annuity guarantees is "a manageable thing for us" given the company's large excess-capital position and its use of reinsurance and hedging programs.

Fellow insurance giant Prudential also uses hedging strategies and noted in its earnings call it has designed new annuities to help with risk mitigation.  http://ljsheehan.blogspot.com

In Lincoln National's conference call with analysts last week, executives acknowledged gaps in its hedging program surfaced on extreme trading days in September. But President Dennis Glass said variable annuities remain "a good business over the long term"

Hartford uses hedging programs and reinsurance contracts to offset risks. At least one reinsurer has taken some licks: Cigna Corp.'s third-quarter net included $131 million in losses in its runoff reinsurance businesses for variable-annuity guarantees. A Cigna spokesman said big customers include Hartford and an AXA unit.

Hartford also stressed that its variable annuities aren't the most aggressive on the market. Still, it said "a retooling of product features and pricing is warranted and we have begun that process."

But revamping to more-conservative product lines has its downside. "The question is, what kind of market share do you have afterward?" says Moody's Mr. Robinson. "Variable annuities historically have been an arms war."

THU 4 DEC 2008

Flame Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Bacteria can break down a common flame retardant into more-toxic forms, researchers report. Besides finding more degradation products than earlier work had, the new study is the first to identify specific bacterial strains capable of the feat, the team says. http://LOUIS2J2SHEEHAN.US


http://Louis1J1Sheehan.us

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a family of flame-retardant chemicals found in products such as electronics, automobiles, and furniture. The chemicals have 1 to 10 bromine atoms and come in 209 versions. Manufacturers use deca-BDE, which has 10 bromine atoms, or mixtures dominated by penta-BDEs, with their 5 bromines, or octa-BDEs, with 8 bromines.

The chemicals' effects go beyond fire resistance (SN: 10/25/03, p. 266: http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20031025/bob10.asp). Studies in rats and mice have found that penta- and octa-BDEs disrupt development. Deca-BDE is considered less harmful, although the Environmental Protection Agency has listed it as a possible human carcinogen.

The toxins are ubiquitous in the environment, turning up in soil, water, and even human-breast milk.

The European Union and California have banned penta- and octa-BDEs, and the sole U.S. manufacturer has volunteered to stop making these forms (SN: 11/01/03, p. 275: http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20031101/fob1.asp). Deca-BDE remains in production and in wide use.

Lisa Alvarez-Cohen of the University of California, Berkeley and her colleagues were looking for a way to use bioremediation to eliminate the chemicals. They reasoned that various strains of anaerobic bacteria that can remove chlorine atoms from chemicals might also lop off bromines to detoxify the PBDEs.

The group tested whether several different bacterial cultures could break down either deca-BDE or an octa-BDE mixture in the laboratory. The researchers found that the bacteria converted the chemicals into more-toxic forms.

"We were quite surprised to see the production of all these very toxic intermediates," says Alvarez-Cohen.
http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.US

For example, Sulfurospirillum multivorans converted deca-BDE into eight- and seven-bromine forms but could not break down the octa-BDE mixture. Dehalococcoides ethenogenes transformed the octa-BDE mixture into five-, six-, and seven-bromine forms but did not alter deca-BDE. When other microbes were added to D. ethenogenes, the mixture also produced two- and four-bromine PBDEs. Among the breakdown products were several especially toxic forms.

While other researchers have reported the microbial debromination of deca-BDE in anaerobic sewage sludge to nine- and eight-bromine forms, "this is the first time anything beyond octa has been shown," says Alvarez-Cohen. Her group's work appears in the July 15 Environmental Science & Technology. http://LOUIS2J2SHEEHAN.US


http://Louis1J1Sheehan.us

"Lots of folks weren't that concerned about deca-BDE because it was portrayed as being stable," notes Robert C. Hale of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science in Gloucester Point. But the new research, coupled with other published examples of fish and sunlight converting deca-BDEs to less-brominated forms, is "a real reason for concern," he says. "We haven't seen massive amounts of debrominated products out there yet, but it may be a question of time."   Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

THU 4 DEC 2008

updike 4.upd.9991 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

John Updike is the great genial sorcerer of American letters. His output alone (60 books, almost 40 of them novels or story collections) has been supernatural. More wizardly still is the ingenuity of his prose. He has now written tens of thousands of sentences, many of them tiny miracles of transubstantiation whereby some hitherto overlooked datum of the human or natural world — from the anatomical to the zoological, the socio-economic to the spiritual — emerges, as if for the first time, in the complete­ness of its actual being.http://louis7j7sheehan7esquire.blogspot.com

This isn’t writing. It is magic. And it’s not surprising that the author who practices it should be drawn repeatedly to the other, darker kind, though it is often masked in droll comedy. In the 1960s, surveying the field in the literary rat race, Updike put a hex, collectively, on the Jewish novelists (Bellow, Mailer, Malamud, Roth) then looming as his chief competition. He invented a wickedly funny composite parody, Henry Bech, whom he entraps in a web of debilitating spells, from hydrophobia to sleep-anxiety. At one point Bech squanders the best part of a work morning on the toilet, “leafing sadly through Commentary and Encounter,” journals not often hospitable to Updike’s own fiction. Lest we, or his rivals, miss the drift, Updike afflicts Bech with the cruelest curse of all, writer’s block, which leaves him unable to begin, much less finish, his next novel. “Am I blocked? I’d just thought of myself as a slow typist,” Bech weakly jokes to Bea, his current emasculating Gentile mistress, who has supplanted her even more emasculating sister in Bech’s bed. “What do you do,” Bea sneers in reply, “hit the space bar once a day?”http://louis7j7sheehan7esquire.blogspot.com

The first proto-witch in Updike’s fiction reared her fetching head in “Snowing in Greenwich Village,” published in The New Yorker in January 1956, when Updike was 23, a prodigy just out of Harvard. Slight but piquant, more sketch than finished work, this story introduced the Maples, Richard and Joan, newlyweds whose married life Updike has since revisited many times, steering them through child-­raising, estrangements and finally divorce. In their first appearance, the young couple, awkwardly ensconced in an apartment on West 13th Street, are shy hosts to an attractive friend who amuses them with sardonic anecdotes, including one about a recent date (“ ‘the kind of guy who, when we get out of a taxi and there’s a grate giving out steam, crouches down’ — Rebecca lowered her head and lifted her arms — ‘and pretends he’s the Devil’ ”). Wry, remote, oddly detached — with an attitude of world-weary narcissism — Rebecca leaves the Maples feeling embarrassed in their innocence. Walking her home that evening, Richard senses she is dangerous, yet responds to her allure: “Not only did she stand unnecessarily close, but, by shifting the weight of her body to one leg and leaning her head sideways, she lowered her height several inches, placing him in a dominating position exactly fitted to the broad, passive shadows she must have known were on her face.” http://louis8j8sheehan8esquire.blogspot.com

All this is mere prelude to the sustained sorcery of “The Witches of Eastwick,” published in 1984, the predecessor to “The Widows of Eastwick.” “Witches” is best known today through the garish distortions of the Hollywood adaptation — a pity since it’s one of Updike’s most ambitious works, a brilliant counterstatement to his master­piece, the Rabbit Angstrom cycle, our age’s one great serial epic, with its intertwined themes of adultery, death, family strife and social discord.

Rabbit, a comic Everyman, pines for the days “when Americans moved within the American dream, laughing at it, starving on it, but living it, humming it, the national anthem everywhere.” But his alienation doesn’t stop him from grabbing every treat on offer — sex with a hippie runaway, pot-smoking sessions with the half-crazed black radical holed up in Rabbit’s house. And when his wife inherits a Toyota dealer­ship and plants him in the showroom, “Rabbit feels as though he owns it all.” It may well be that “the great American ride is ending,” but like all men Rabbit thinks he’s got a firm grip on the wheel.

“The Witches of Eastwick” flips the switch and reverses the current. Its topic is female empowerment. A triad of literal witches, sexually rapacious divorcées in their 30s, prey on the menfolk in a shabby-trendy Rhode Island seaside town and, as their power grows, also terrorize the local citizens, causing destruction and even death by means of the evils — the “maleficia” — they unleash through spells and chants. The three are also artists manqué: Alexandra, the coven’s earth mother, makes leeringly primitive clay figurines, “little feminist fetishes” sold in local shops; Jane, flinty and acerbic, is an impassioned cellist; Sukie, a willowy redhead, writes an energetic gossip column for the local paper.

Each also keeps a souvenir of her ex-husband — indeed what appears to be an atomized version of his remains. Alexandra’s “rested on a high kitchen shelf in a jar, reduced to multicolored rust, the cap screwed on tight.” Jane’s “hung in the cellar of her ranch house among the dried herbs and simples and was occasionally sprinkled, a pinch at a time, into a philter, for piquancy.” Sukie “had permanized hers in plastic and used him as a place mat.”

All three women are feminists — or at least subscribe to a Nature-centered philosophy of female domination. “Full of the belief that a conspiracy of women upholds the world,” they imagine dethroning the interlocking system of ideas and assumptions men have developed through the centuries — experimental science, religious morality and, above all, the hierarchy of the sexes. http://louis8j8sheehan8esquire.blogspot.com

“Not until midlife,” Updike writes of one witch, “did she truly believe that she had a right to exist, that the forces of nature had created her not as an afterthought and companion — a bent rib, as the infamous Malleus Maleficarum had it — but as the mainstay of the continuing Creation, as the daughter of a daughter and a woman whose daughters in turn would bear daughters.”http://louis7j7sheehan7esquire.blogspot.com

This sounds dated and is meant to. The novel is a period piece, set during “the Nixon years,” with their bitter mood of polarization. Eastwick’s bluestockings organize antiwar rallies. The local pastor, promiscuous like seemingly all of Eastwick’s men, runs away with a local teenage girl to join a bomb-building band of underground radicals.http://louis7j7sheehan7esquire.blogspot.com

Amid all this, witchcraft seems simply another ideology, potentially the basis for a reinterpretation of the human and natural world. Updike makes good sport throughout of pseudofeminist cant. But he is also a master of omniscient sympathy, and gradually the witches’ conviction that they “could move the material world with sympathetic magic” achieves the completeness of a plausible worldview, one that seeps into the broader ethos of Eastwick. “Insofar as they were witches, they were phantoms in the communal mind,” Updike writes. They earn respect for “a certain distinction, an inner boiling such as had in other cloistral towns produced Emily Dickinson’s verses and Emily Brontë’s inspired novel.”

And yet, despite their dream of female empowerment, the witches’ fantasies center on a man, a mysteriously well-heeled newcomer “with greasy curly hair half-hiding his ears and clumped at the back so that his head from the side looked like a beer mug with a monstrously thick handle.” Unsubtly named Darryl Van Horne, he is either Satan or his emissary, given to voluble though not quite coherent Mephistophelian theorizing. Aware the three divorcées are devil-worshipers, he lures them into the brick mansion, Eastwick’s finest, which he has bought and gaudily refurbished. The “malefactresses” cavort in Van Horne’s “eight-foot teak hot tub,” sexually servicing him and at times one another. They also greedily imbibe his lethal cocktails, “alchemically concocted of tequila and grenadine and crème de cassis and Triple Sec,” and compete fiercely on his bubble-roofed tennis court, resorting to tradecraft if it means winning a point. During one heated match, the ball tossed up for a serve “became in midair a bat”: “its wings circled in small circumference at first and, next instant, snapped open like an umbrella as the creature flicked away with its pink blind face.”

Even as Updike vivifies these inventive debauches, he makes us see the pathos that underlies them. The women, their ravening appetites and arcane gifts aside, seek only what so many others in their position seek, escape from the ­dreary sameness of their daily lives — their downscale homes, their needy children (whom they shamelessly neglect), the ostracism forced on divorced women in provincial small-town America.

Unexpectedly, however, the chosen victims of their “maleficia,” the spells chanted under a “cone of power,” are in almost every instance other women, principally the henpecking wives who complicate their adulteries, though others suffer as well. In the end, the three, “consecrated to evil and its callous self-­absorption,” wield power ruthlessly, just as men do, and Updike lingers, luridly in places, on the deaths they cause or influence. (“The bone of her skull gave off a surprising high-pitched noise, as if two blocks of wood had been playfully knocked together.”) “The Witches of Eastwick,” comedy of the blackest sort, reminds us how often in Updike violence disrupts the gleaming surfaces.

All this provides the background for “The Widows of Eastwick,” Updike’s predictably ingenious sequel, set 30-plus years later. The mood and tone are very different — relaxed and contemplative. The witches, having fled Eastwick and dispersed for second marriages, more or less satisfying, have lately lost their husbands. They tentatively renew their sisterhood on overseas travels in which they test their creaky skills. These opening pages form a long, rather aimless set piece. But it doesn’t matter. Who can resist Updike on veiled heads glimpsed in a Cairo market (“lively liquid eyes glared like the bright backs of captured beetles”) or on Mao in his coffin (“evenly coated with orange makeup not quite the color of living skin”)?

Pleased with their time together, the women return to Eastwick for the summer, sharing cramped quarters in a tacky apartment complex carved from Van Horne’s repurposed mansion. A generation has passed and much has changed, despite some superficial parallels. As before, dangers abound — it is post-9/11 America — but the atmosphere of conflict has evaporated, at least in Eastwick. It’s now become, as the acidulous Jane complains, a haven of wholesomeness, of “ toned-up young mothers driving their overweight boys in overweight S.U.V.’s to hockey practice 20 miles away, the young fathers castrated namby-pambies helping itty-bitty wifey with the housekeeping, spending all Saturday fussing around the lovely home. It’s the ’50s all over again, without the Russians as an excuse. ” In the 1960s and early ’70s, affluence inspired healthy blasphemies. It has since become its own oppressive piety. “People go around mourning the death of God,” Jane sputters, lapsing into sibilance. “It’s the death of sssin that bothers me. Without sin, people aren’t people any more, they’re just ssoul-less sheep.”

This is a favorite Updike theme — explored at length in his novel “Couples” (1968) — and it is saturated in irony. We know who’s to blame for this simpering generation: their elders, who always put their own anarchic appetites first. Their offspring — “those poor saintly deserted children of ours,” in Sukie’s words — have rebelled in turn by becoming devoted spouses and overprotective parents.

This communal virtue, though easily mocked, proves infectious. The witches, led by Alexandra, their conscience, contrive to atone for their past crimes, in particular the slow fatal illness they inflicted on a young Wiccan who had joined the wild party at Van Horne’s mansion and then calculatedly displaced them. They can’t bring her back to life, but perhaps other victims­—including an infant, now a grown woman, rendered infertile by their spells — can be nursed to wholeness through the exercise of white magic.

But evil, once done, can’t simply be undone. Some damage is irreversible. Besides, their victims have memories too — or have passed them on to kin, including a warlock orphaned by the witches all those years ago and determined to exact vengeance. And the widows’ powers have waned. They are old ladies now, approaching or past 70, “ancient bag-hags,” betrayed, finally, by the Nature goddess. All along their enchantments had derived from their sex appeal, and it is now gone or very nearly so. Preparing to cast a spell, the three shed their clothes and study the bleak script of their decrepitude, “the wrinkles, the warts and scars, the keratoses and liver spots, the slack muscles and patches of crepey skin crinkled like smooth water touched by a breath of wind, the varicose veins and arthritic deformations with which time had overlaid their old beauty.” Teenagers flirting outside a Ben & Jerry’s prompt Alexandra to brood on what lies ahead for them: “Sex, entrapment, weariness, death.”

Updike’s asperities on age inevitably reflect back on himself, but not in the way we might expect. At 76, he still wrings more from a sentence than almost anyone else. His sorcery is startlingly fresh, page upon page.

The principal character in “The Widows of Eastwick” is the town itself, and Updike makes it more sensually real than one’s own neighborhood: the “glaring sidewalk, fleshy people in summer shorts casting squat self-important shadows, wilting zinnias in beds next to the concrete post-office steps, the American flag hanging limp on its pole overhead.” A summer carnival, where “children were burying their faces in paper cones of cotton candy, and trying to open their mouths wide enough to bite through the thick glaze of candy apples,” fosters an air of “false excitement ­— the shrieks from the Whirlabout, as the circular cages at the end of their long tilting arms flung the willing captives this way and that; the more sedate frights occasioned by the spasmodic rotation of the Ferris wheel, stopping at the bottom to change passengers while all the other seats swung, springing panicky cries from those hoisted topmost into the cool night.”

The genius inheres in the precise observation, in the equally precise language, but above all in the illusion that the image has been received and processed in real time, when in truth Updike has slowed events to a dreamlike pace and given them a dream’s hyperreality, so that the distinction between the actual and the imagined feels erased. “My first books met the criticism that I wrote all too well but had nothing to say,” he once ruefully noted. “My own style seemed to me a groping and elemental attempt to approximate the complexity of envisioned phenomena, and it surprised me to have it called luxuriant and self-indulgent; self-indulgent, surely, is exactly what it wasn’t — other-­indulgent, rather.”

That other, he asserted, added up to nothing less than “the whole mass of middling, hidden, troubled America.” No writer of our time has reached into it so deeply or conjured so many of its mysteries so pulsingly to life.Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

THU 4 DEC 2008

netflix 5.net.0002 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Netflix was a pioneer in the business of movie rentals -- getting consumers to rent DVDs online and mailing them out in cheery red envelopes. Recently, it has put a lot of effort into a service that delivers movies digitally over the Internet to subscribers, preparing for a day when getting movies on a physical disc will become outmoded.

People today use the Netflix service on their computers, but Netflix has cut a series of deals with hardware partners to make the service available on TV sets through an array of devices.

Most of these devices were designed to do other things: a videogame console, high-definition Blu-ray disc players, a TiVo digital video recorder. So to see how well the service works on these devices, I've spent the past couple of weeks comparing the Netflix experience on Microsoft's Xbox 360 game console, on LG Electronics' BD300 Blu-ray disc player and on a set-top box from Roku called the Netflix Player. The last, as the name implies, is designed mainly for Netflix service.

The devices suffer from a relatively skimpy selection of videos on the Netflix Internet service. Netflix has more than 100,000 titles for rent on disc, but about 12,000 titles for viewing through its Internet service at the moment, and there's often a months-long delay after a movie's release before it shows up online. Television shows generally turn up more quickly, with a handful, like NBC's "Heroes," watchable the day after they air.

Still, I find the Netflix service very appealing, especially for catching up on episodes of TV series, such as "30 Rock," that I missed when they aired. Unlike the iTunes Store and other sites that charge users $1.99 per TV episode and $3.99 to rent a movie online, the Netflix Internet service is free to subscribers to its DVD service on one of the company's "unlimited" rental plans, which start at $8.99 a month.

Depending on how fast your Internet connection is, Netflix videos begin playing almost instantly, though you can't keep permanent copies.

Connecting the devices to Netflix through my wired home network was easy in all three cases. I used a wireless home network -- more common in homes than the wired variety -- with the Roku device, the only one of three products that comes with built-in Wi-Fi (it worked well in this mode). People who want to use the Xbox 360 with a wireless network will have to spend $70 or so on an external Wi-Fi adapter. LG recommends people use only a wired home network to connect to Netflix from its player, including adapter kits that cost about $100 for transmitting data over home power lines.

All the devices require you to create a list of movies you want to watch from a computer, just like Netflix subscribers set up "queues" of DVDs to be delivered by mail. The Xbox 360 offered by far the most elegant-looking interface for browsing through videos in my Netflix queue, letting me glide through a long row of cover art representing the movies and TV shows I selected on my PC.

In contrast, the Netflix menu on the LG Blu-ray player and Roku device were more static, making it more awkward to navigate the expanse of titles. Netflix became available on the Xbox 360 in November as part of a more sweeping software upgrade, delivered over the Internet, that remade the graphical look of the system.

The quality of most of the videos on Netflix is, to my eyes, about DVD quality, though Netflix is adding some titles in high-definition to its Internet library. HD titles were available for viewing only through the Xbox 360 when I was testing the service. Roku and LG say they will make software updates available online this month that add HD support to their devices.

http://louis7j7sheehan7esquire.blogspot.com

The Xbox 360 also has some annoying quirks when using it as a movie player -- including a noisy fan I found distracting. The game controller that comes with the Xbox 360 is clunky for playing movies, so users will need to invest in an inexpensive additional remote-control design for media. The Roku and LG players, in contrast, were totally silent and had acceptable remote controls for watching Netflix videos.

I experienced the most serious glitches with the LG Blu-ray player, which occasionally dropped the video signal to my television set as I was watching a movie. LG says the loss of video signal could have been due to the connection I used to hook the player to my TV, though I've never had a problem with other devices using the same connection. The LG Blu-ray player also took the longest of all the devices to install software upgrades from the Internet. http://louis8j8sheehan8esquire.blogspot.com

While there are some differences in the Netflix experience on the Roku device, Xbox 360 and LG Blu-ray player, none of them is so great that they should trump other considerations -- like a desire to play videogames or watch HD Blu-ray movies -- in deciding which system is the best fit. http://louis9j9sheehan9esquire.blogspot.com

The LG Blu-ray player is available online for about $300. The cheapest Xbox 360 model is $199. (To get Netflix through the Xbox 360, users must be "gold" members to the $49.99-a-year Xbox Live game service.) But if what you're after is primarily Netflix movies, and you've got room near your TV for another box, the $99.99 Roku product is the best value. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

THU 4 DEC 2008

New World 77.new.01773 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire.  Human exploitation of marine species and destruction of habitat have been spoiling coastal ecosystems since the birth of the Roman republic. By comparing historical changes in 12 bodies of water worldwide, a new study highlights the extent to which civilization's advance has led to ecological degradation.

"Estuaries, because of their proximity to human settlements, are sort of ground zero for human impacts," says marine ecologist Larry B. Crowder of Duke University. The bounties of coastal seas and estuaries began attracting people before the start of recorded history.
http://louis7j7sheehan7esquire.blogspot.com

This makes it difficult for scientists to study the evolution of a coastal ecosystem from its unsullied state to its current condition, says fisheries and restoration ecologist Hunter S. Lenihan of the University of California, Santa Barbara. "For the most part, we've used reference points that are far down the time line of historical degradation," he says. A broader perspective might reveal potential interventions.

Lenihan and his colleagues reviewed hundreds of documents, including scientific studies, written historical accounts, and artwork, to identify past shifts in coastal species diversity, abundance, and size.

Their information included 8,000-year-old sediment data that predate civilization along the northern Adriatic and western Baltic seas. For various North American and Australian waters, the researchers assessed data including paleontological and archaeological remains and water-quality information. The researchers, led by Heike K. Lotze of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, report their findings in the June 23 Science.  http://louis8j8sheehan8esquire.blogspot.com

Most ecological damage in the New World occurred after European settlement, they find. But the breakdown began earlier around San Francisco Bay, where natives fished and hunted heavily during pre-colonial times.

"Degradation started sooner in some systems than others, but ... the sequence of degradation was similar," Lenihan says.

Colonialism brought to the New World large-scale deforestation and destruction of wetlands, and soil erosion dumped sediment and excess nutrients into the seas. But, says Lenihan, "it wasn't until [people] began to overharvest biofiltration organisms"—such as oysters—"that we saw massive changes in water quality." With neither these living water filters nor wetlands, "systems can no longer withstand the inputs of nutrients and sediment," he says.

Restoration of oyster habitat in North Carolina's Pamlico Sound, the most degraded New World site in the study, "would have a profound effect on biodiversity, the production of economically valuable species, and filtration," Lenihan says.  http://louis9j9sheehan9esquire.blogspot.com

While fishing has played a primary role, the new study highlights that "declines are not due [exclusively] to any one human activity," Crowder says.

A few ecological "success stories" have occurred in waters where society has taken multiple steps to repair nature, Crowder says. "Where we've failed to do that, things continue to degrade."  Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

December 5, 2008

FRI 5 DEC 2008

Auschwitz 7.aus.0002 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Camps

The three main camps were Auschwitz I, II, and III. Auschwitz I, the original concentration camp, served as the administrative center for the whole complex, and was the site of the deaths of roughly 70,000 people, mostly Poles and Soviet prisoners of war. Auschwitz II (Birkenau) was an extermination camp or Vernichtungslager, and was the site of the deaths of at least 960,000 Jews, 75,000 Poles, and some 19,000 Roma (Gypsies). Birkenau was the largest of all the Nazi extermination camps. Auschwitz III (Monowitz) served as a labor camp for the Buna-Werke factory of the IG Farben concern. http://louis6j6sheehan.blogspot.com

In November, 2008, blueprints were discovered in a Berlin apartment that suggest a major expansion of the Auschwitz-Birkenau camp was planned, although the authenticity of the documents has not been independently confirmed.^[4] There were also around 40 satellite camps, some of them tens of kilometers from the main camps, with prisoner populations ranging from several dozen to several thousand.^[5] See list of subcamps of Auschwitz for others. http://louis1j1sheehan1esquire.blogspot.com

Like all German concentration camps, the Auschwitz camps were operated by the Nazi party's paramilitary arm, the SS. The commandants of the camp were the SS-Obersturmbannführers Rudolf Höß until the summer of 1943, and later Arthur Liebehenschel and Richard Baer. Höß provided a detailed description of the camp's workings during his interrogations after the war and also in his autobiography. He was hanged in 1947 in front of the entrance to the crematorium of Auschwitz I.

Command of the women's camp, which was separated from the men's area by the incoming railway line was held in turn by Johanna Langefeld, Maria Mandel, and Elisabeth Volkenrath.

Auschwitz I

Following the German invasion of Poland in September 1939, Oświęcim was annexed by Nazi Germany and renamed Auschwitz. Auschwitz I was the original camp, and it served as the administrative center for the whole complex. It was founded on May 20, 1940, on the basis of an old Polish brick army barracks (originally built by the Austro-Hungarian Empire). A group of 728 Polish political prisoners from Tarnów became the first residents of Auschwitz on June 14 that year.

The camp was initially used for interning Polish intellectuals and resistance movement members, then also for Soviet Prisoners of War. Common German criminals, "anti-social elements" and 48 German homosexuals were also imprisoned there. Jews were sent to the camp as well, beginning with the very first shipment (from Tarnów). At any time, the camp held between 13,000 and 16,000 inmates; in 1942 the number reached 20,000. The entrance to Auschwitz I was—and still is—marked with the sign “Arbeit Macht Frei”, or “work makes (one) free”. The camp's prisoners who left the camp during the day for construction or farm labor were made to march through the gate to the sounds of an orchestra. Contrary to what is depicted in several films, the majority of the Jews were imprisoned in the Auschwitz II camp, and did not pass under this sign. http://louis1j1sheehan.blogspot.com

The SS selected some prisoners, often German criminals, as specially privileged supervisors of the other inmates (so-called: kapo). The various classes of prisoners were distinguishable by special marks on their clothes; Jews were generally treated the worst. All inmates had to work in the associated arms factories, except on Sundays, which were reserved for cleaning and showering and upon which there were no work assignments.

The harsh work requirements, combined with poor nutrition and hygiene, led to high death rates among the prisoners. Block 11 of Auschwitz (the original standing cells and such were block 13) was the "prison within the prison", where violators of the numerous rules were punished. Some prisoners were made to spend the nights in "standing-cells". These cells were about 1.5 metres square, and four men would be placed in them; they could do nothing but stand, and were forced during the day to work with the other prisoners. In the basement were located the "starvation cells"; prisoners incarcerated here were given neither food nor water until they were dead.^[6]

Also in the basement were the "dark cells"; these cells had only a very tiny window, and a solid door. Prisoners placed in these cells would gradually suffocate as they used up all of the oxygen in the air; sometimes the SS would light a candle in the cell to use up the oxygen more quickly. Many were subjected to hanging with their hands behind their backs, thus dislocating their shoulder joints for hours, even days.^[7]

The execution yard is between blocks 10 and 11. In this area, prisoners who were thought to merit individual execution received it. Some were shot, against a reinforced wall which still exists; others suffered a more lingering death by being suspended from hooks set in two wooden posts, which also still exist.^{[citation needed]} On September 3, 1941, deputy camp commandant SS-Hauptsturmführer Fritzsch experimented on 600 Russian POWs and 250 ill Polish inmates by cramming them into the basement of Block 11 and gassing them with Zyklon B, a highly lethal cyanide based pesticide.^[8] This paved the way for the use of Zyklon B as an instrument for extermination at Auschwitz, and a gas chamber and crematorium were constructed by converting a bunker. This gas chamber operated from 1941 to 1942, during which time some 60,000 people were killed therein; it was then converted into an air-raid shelter for the use of the SS. This gas chamber still exists, together with the associated crematorium, which was reconstructed after the war using the original components, which remained on-site.

Auschwitz II (Birkenau)

Construction on Auschwitz II (Birkenau) began in October 1941 to ease congestion at the main camp. It was designed to hold several categories of prisoners, and to function as an extermination camp in the context of Himmler's preparations for the Final Solution of the Jewish Question, the extermination of the Jews.^[10] The Nazis had committed themselves to the Final Solution no later than January 1942, the date of the Wannsee Conference.

The first gas chamber at Birkenau was "The Little Red House", a brick cottage that was converted into a gassing facility by tearing out the inside and bricking up the walls. It was operational by March 1942. A second brick cottage, "The Little Red House", was similarly converted some weeks later.^[11] By July of 1942, the SS were conducting the infamous "selections", in which incoming Jews were divided into those deemed able to work, who were then admitted to the camp, and those who weren't, who were immediately gassed.^[12]

In early 1943, the Nazis decided to greatly increase the gassing capacity of Birkenau. Crematoria II, originally designed as a mortuary, with morgues in the basement and ground-level furnaces, was converted into a killing factory by placing a gas-tight door on the morgues and adding vents for Zyklon B and ventilation equipment to remove the gas. http://louis0j0sheehan.blogspot.com It came online in March. Crematoria III was built using the same design. Crematoria IV and V, designed from the start as gassing centers, were also constructed that spring. By June 1943 all four crematoria were up. Most victims were killed during a period afterwards.^[13]

The camp was staffed partly by prisoners, some of whom were selected to be kapos (orderlies) and sonderkommandos (workers at the crematoria). The kapos were responsible for keeping order in the barrack huts; the sonderkommando prepared new arrivals for gassing (ordering them to remove their clothing and surrender their personal possessions) and transferred corpses from the gas chambers to the furnaces, having first pulled out any gold that the victims might have had in their teeth. Members of these groups were killed periodically. The kapos and sonderkommandos were supervised by members of the SS; altogether 6,000 SS members worked at Auschwitz.

Many people know the Birkenau camp simply as "Auschwitz"; it was larger than Auschwitz I, and more people passed through its gates than did those of Auschwitz I. It was the site of imprisonment of hundreds of thousands, and of the killing of over one million people, mainly Jews but also large numbers of Poles, and Gypsies, mostly through gassing.

Selection process

Prisoners were transported from all over German-occupied Europe by rail, arriving at Auschwitz-Birkenau in daily convoys. Arrivals at the complex were separated into two main groups - those marked for immediate extermination, and those to be registered as prisoners. The first group, about three-quarters of the total, went to the gas chambers of Auschwitz-Birkenau within a few hours; they included all children, all women with children, all the elderly, and all those who appeared on brief and superficial inspection by an SS doctor not to be fully fit. SS personnel told the victims that they were to take a shower and undergo delousing. The victims would undress in an outer chamber and walk into the gas chamber, which was disguised as a shower facility, complete with dummy shower heads. After the doors were shut, SS men would dump in the cyanide pellets via (depending on which crematorium) holes in the roof or windows on the side. In the Auschwitz Birkenau camp more than 20,000 people could be gassed and cremated each day. At Birkenau, the Nazis used a cyanide gas produced from Zyklon B pellets, which were manufactured by two companies who had acquired licensing rights to the patent held by IG Farben. The two companies were Tesch & Stabenow, of Hamburg, who supplied two tons of the crystals each month, and Degesch, of Dessau, who produced three-quarters of a ton. The bills of lading were produced at Nuremberg.^[14]

Those deemed fit to work were used as slave labor at industrial factories for such companies as IG Farben and Krupp. At the Auschwitz complex 405,000 prisoners were recorded as slaves between 1940 and 1945. Of these about 340,000 perished through executions, beatings, starvation, and sickness.

Sonderkommandos yanked gold teeth from the corpses of gas chamber victims; the gold was melted down and sent back to the Third Reich. The belongings of the arrivals, both those gassed and those admitted to the camp, were seized by the SS. They were sorted in an area of the camp called "Canada". Many of the SS at the camp enriched themselves by pilfering the confiscated property of the Jews.^[15] The name "Canada" was very cynically chosen. In Poland it was used as an expression used when viewing, for example, a valuable and fine gift. The expression came from the time when Polish emigrants were sending gifts home from Canada.

Timeline of genocide

Auschwitz-Birkenau claimed more victims than any other Nazi extermination camp despite coming into use after all the others. In 1941 1.1 million Jews were murdered, largely by mass shootings in the occupied territories. In 1942 2.7 million Jews were murdered, many in Chelmno, Sobibor, Belzec, and Treblinka, the extermination camps built in Poland specifically to destroy Poland's three million Jews. Only 200,000 were killed at Auschwitz. In 1943 some 500,000 Jews were killed, half of which were killed in Auschwitz. With the destruction of Poland's Jews mostly complete, the other four camps were closed by the end of 1943. Auschwitz alone would continue to operate, both as a giant slave labor complex and an extermination facility dedicated to the genocide of Jews from the rest of Nazi-occupied Europe.^[16]

The busiest time for Auschwitz as an extermination camp was April through June 1944, when it was the center for the massacre of Hungary's Jews. Hungary was an ally of Germany during the war but had resisted turning over its Jews to the Germans until Germany sent troops to occupy Hungary in March 1944. In 56 days from April until the end of June 1944, 436,000 Hungarian Jews, half of the pre-war population, were deported to Auschwitz and to their deaths. Jews continued to arrive from other parts of Nazi Europe as well. The incoming volume was so great that the SS at Auschwitz resorted to burning corpses in open-air pits as well as the crematoria. The total of over 400,000 Jews gassed during the Hungarian Action in the spring of 1944 represented some two-thirds of all the 600,000 Jews exterminated in that year and a third of all the Jews killed at Auschwitz in the two and a half years that it operated as an extermination camp.^[17]

Auschwitz III

See also: List of subcamps of Auschwitz

The surrounding work camps, of which there were approximately forty, were closely connected to German industry and were associated with arms factories, foundries and mines. The largest work camp was Auschwitz III Monowitz, named after the Polish village of Monowice. Starting operations in May 1942, it was associated with the synthetic rubber and liquid fuel plant Buna-Werke owned by IG Farben. 11,000 slave laborers worked at Monowitz. Seven thousand inmates worked at various chemical plants. Eight thousand worked in mines.  http://louis3j3sheehan3.blogspot.com  Approximately 40,000 prisoners worked in slave labor camps at Auschwitz or nearby^[18], under appalling conditions. In regular intervals, doctors from Auschwitz II would visit the work camps and select the weak and sick for the gas chambers of Birkenau. The largest subcamps were built at Trzebinia, Blechhammer and Althammer. Female subcamps were constructed at Budy, Plawy, Zabrze, Gleiwitz I, II, III, Rajsko and at Lichtenwerden (now Světlá). http://louis8j8sheehan8.blogspot.com

Medical experiments at Auschwitz

Nazi doctors at Auschwitz performed a wide variety of "experiments" on helpless prisoners. SS doctors tested the efficacy of X-rays as a sterilization device by administering large doses to female prisoners. Prof. Dr. Carl Clauberg injected chemicals into women's uteruses in an effort to glue them shut. Bayer, then a subsidiary of IG Farben, bought prisoners to use as guinea pigs for testing new drugs.^[19]

The most infamous doctor at Auschwitz was Josef Mengele, who was also known as the “Angel of Death”. Particularly interested in "research" on identical twins, Mengele performed cruel experiments on them, such as inducing diseases in one twin of a pair and killing the other when the first died to perform comparative autopsies. He also took a special interest in dwarves, injecting twins, dwarves and other prisoners with gangrene to "study" the effects.^[20]

Allies' knowledge of the camp

For more details on this topic, see Auschwitz bombing debate.

Information regarding Auschwitz was available to the Allies during years 1940–1943 by accurate and frequent reports of Polish Army Captain Witold Pilecki. Pilecki was the only known person to volunteer to be imprisoned at Auschwitz concentration camp, spending 945 days at Auschwitz not only actively gathering evidence of genocide and supplying it to the British in London by Polish resistance movement but also organizing resistance structures at the camp. His first report was smuggled outside in November 1940. He eventually escaped on April 27, 1943, but even his personal report of mass killings was dismissed as exaggeration by the Allies, as were his previous ones.^[21] This changed with receipt of the very detailed report of two prisoners, Rudolf Vrba and Alfred Wetzler who escaped on April 7, 1944 which finally convinced most Allied leaders of the truth about Auschwitz in the middle of 1944.

Detailed air reconnaissance photographs of the camp were taken accidentally during 1944 by aircraft seeking to photograph nearby military-industrial targets, but no effort was made to analyze them.
http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.blogspot.com

  In fact, it was not until the 1970s that these photographs of Auschwitz were looked at carefully.

Starting with a plea from the Slovakian rabbi Weissmandl in May 1944, there was a growing campaign to persuade the Allies to bomb Auschwitz or the railway lines leading to it. At one point Winston Churchill ordered that such a plan be prepared, but he was told that bombing the camp would most likely kill prisoners without disrupting the killing operation, and that bombing the railway lines was not technically feasible. Later several nearby military targets were bombed. One bomb accidentally fell into the camp and killed some prisoners. The debate over what could have been done, or what should have been attempted even if success was unlikely, has continued heatedly ever since.

Resistance

Birkenau revolt

By 1943 resistance organizations had developed in the camp. These organizations helped a few prisoners escape; these escapees took with them news of exterminations, such as the killing of hundreds of thousands of Jews transported from Hungary between May and July 1944. On October 7, 1944, the Jewish Sonderkommandos (those inmates kept separate from the main camp and put to work in the gas chambers and crematoria) of Birkenau Kommando III staged an uprising. They attacked the SS with makeshift weapons: stones, axes, hammers, other work tools and homemade grenades. They caught the SS guards by surprise, overpowered them and blew up the Crematorium IV, using explosives smuggled in from a weapons factory by female inmates. At this stage they were joined by the Birkenau Kommando I of the Crematorium II, which also overpowered their guards and broke out of the compound. Hundreds of prisoners escaped, but were all soon captured and, along with an additional group who participated in the revolt, executed.^[22]

There were also plans for a general uprising in Auschwitz, coordinated with an Allied air raid and a Polish resistance (Armia Krajowa, Home Army) attack from the outside. That plan was authored by Polish resistance fighter, Witold Pilecki, who organized in Auschwitz an underground Union of Military Organization - (Związek Organizacji Wojskowej, ZOW). Pilecki and ZOW hoped that the Allies would drop arms or troops into the camp (most likely the Polish 1st Independent Parachute Brigade, based in Britain), and that the Home Army would organize an assault on the camp from outside. By 1943, however, he realized that the Allies had no such plans. Meanwhile, the Gestapo redoubled its efforts to ferret out ZOW members, succeeding in killing many of them. Pilecki decided to break out of the camp, with the hope of personally convincing Home Army leaders that a rescue attempt was a valid option. He escaped on the night of April 26–April 27, 1943 but his plan was not accepted by the Home Army as the Allies considered his reports about the Holocaust exaggerated.^[21]

Individual escape attempts

About 700 prisoners attempted to escape from the Auschwitz camps during the years of their operation, of which about 300 were successful. A common punishment for escape attempts was death by starvation; the families of successful escapees were sometimes arrested and interned in Auschwitz and prominently displayed to deter others. If someone did manage to escape, the SS would pick ten random people from the prisoner's block and starve them to death.^[23]

Since the Nazi regime was designed to degrade prisoners to the standards of animals, maintaining the will to survive was seen in itself as an act of rebellion. Primo Levi was given this very teaching from his fellow prisoner and friend Steinlauf: "[that] precisely because the camp was a great machine to reduce us to beasts, we must not become beasts; that even in this place one can survive, and therefore one must want to survive, to tell the story, to bear witness; and that, if we want to survive, then it's important that we strive to preserve at least the skeleton, the scaffolding, the external shape of civilization."^[24]

In 1943 the 'Kampfgruppe Auschwitz' was organised with the aim to send out as much information about what was happening in Auschwitz as possible. They buried notes in the ground in the hope a liberator would find them and smuggled out photos of the crematoria and gas chambers.^{[citation needed]}

In June 1944, Mala Zimetbaum tried to escape together with her polish lover, Edek Galinski. They also wanted to smuggle out deportation lists Mala had been able to copy due to her translator job in the office of the "Lagerleitung". They both were arrested on July 6th near the Slovakian frontier and sentenced to death; but Edek managed to kill himself before being executed, while Mala, having failed to commit suicide, died finally after having been bestially tortured by the SS enraged of this unique act of resistance of a self-confident Jewish women.

Evacuation and liberation

The last selection took place on October 30, 1944. The next month, Heinrich Himmler ordered the crematoria destroyed before the Red Army reached the camp. The gas chambers of Birkenau were blown up by the SS in January 1945 in an attempt to hide the German crimes from the advancing Soviet troops. On January 20 the SS command sent orders to murder all the prisoners remaining in the camp, but in the chaos of the Nazi retreat the order was never carried out.^[25] On January 17, 1945 Nazi personnel started to evacuate the facility; nearly sixty thousand prisoners, most of those remaining, were forced on a death march to the camp toward Wodzisław Śląski (German: Loslau). Some 20,000 Auschwitz prisoners made it to Bergen-Belsen concentration camp in Germany, where they were liberated by the British in April 1945.^[26] Those too weak or sick to walk were left behind; about 7,500 prisoners were liberated by the 322nd Rifle Division of the Red Army on January 27, 1945. Among the artifacts of automated murder found by the Russians were 348,820 men's suits and 836,255 women's garments.^[27]

Death toll

The exact number of victims at Auschwitz is impossible to fix with certainty. Since the Nazis destroyed a number of records, immediate efforts to count the dead depended on the testimony of witnesses and the defendants on trial at Nuremberg. While under interrogation Rudolf Höß, commandant of Auschwitz concentration camp from 1940 to 1943,^[28] said that two and a half million Jews had been killed in gas chambers and about half a million died "naturally".^[29] Later he wrote "I regard two and a half million far too high. Even Auschwitz had limits to its destructive possibilities".^[30]

Communist Soviet and Polish authorities maintained a figure "between 2.5 and 4 million".^[1] The figure "4,000,000" was used on the original Auschwitz memorial plaques. The plaques did not specify the ethnicities of victims.

In 1983 French scholar George Wellers was one of the first to use German data on deportations to estimate the number killed at Auschwitz, arriving at 1.613 million dead, including 1.44 million Jews and 146,000 Catholic Poles. A larger study started around the same time by Franciszek Piper used timetables of train arrivals combined with deportation records to calculate 1.1 million Jewish deaths and 140,000-150,000 ethnic Polish victims, along with 23,000 Roma and Sinti (Gypsies). This number has met with "significant, though not complete" agreement among scholars. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

December 6, 2008

SAT 6 DEC 2008

mystery 8.mys.12708 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

December 7, 2008

SUN 7 DEC 2008

water 9.wat.003994 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Originally used for hiking and other outdoor activities, water bottles outfitted with their own filters are now being marketed to the masses.

The products -- which mimic the effect of those ubiquitous filter-clad pitchers -- could appeal to eco-conscious and frugal consumers who want to avoid buying bottled water and want the convenience of being able to fill up on the go. The newer models, like filtered pitchers, primarily deal with improving the odor and taste of tap water. The traditional outdoor bottles, with more complicated filters, funnel out pathogens from untreated lake and river water. Some contain iodine so are not recommended for regular, daily use. http://louis6j6sheehan.blogspot.com

Squeezing the bottles pushes water through the filters for instant drinking water. We tested different bottles and while we were intrigued by the idea, we found most were hard to use. Here are a few of the products:

Aquamira Water Bottle and Microbiological Filter

Price: $26.95
Availability: www.aquamira.com
Comment: This bottle can be used for traveling outdoors or for everyday use. A single filter can be used for 230 refills, and water comes out in three streams, by squeezing the bottle upside down. But squeezing this bottle -- with its hard plastic material -- is a bit of a workout.

Fit & Fresh LivPURE Filtered Water Bottle

Price: $12.99
Availability: Target and Kmart stores
Comment: This product has the most user-friendly and attractive packaging, as it comes in four different colors and has a sleek, thinner design. It is designed for everyday use with tap water. The filter, which sits inside the bottom lid, is easily removed by pulling on the U-shaped ring on the bottom of the filter. The filter does remove some of the added taste in tap water; the company claims it also reduces chlorine by 50%. http://louis1j1sheehan1esquire.blogspot.com

The Watergeeks Laboratory sport bottle; hiking bottle

Price: sport bottle for $17.99; hiking bottle for $39.99
Availability: www.thewatergeeks.com
Comment: To reduce the strain of squeezing the bottle, the hiking version has a soft grip around its middle. The sports bottle, the smallest of the group tested, was a favorite as the water flowed easily while turned upside-down. That version is intended for tap water, while the hiking bottle is for limited outdoor use. The sports bottle reduces chlorine content and filters out some mercury, lead, copper and cadmium. http://louis1j1sheehan.blogspot.com The company recommends that you replace its filter after 200 uses or every 90 days, according to taste.

Katadyn Micro Water Bottle Microfilter

Price: $40
Availability: www.katadyn.us and REI stores
Comment: This is an old-school outdoor water bottle not intended for regular use. It is designed for freshwater lakes, rivers or streams while traveling, hiking and camping. It is hard to squeeze, and the water comes out in spurts through an angled, fixed plastic tube. The company says the filter cartridge for the bottle lasts for 160 refills.  Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

December 10, 2008

WED 10 DEC 2008

pater 6.pat.000002 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire .  During the time of Caesar and Cicero, in the final decades of the Roman Republic, a group of aristocrats, led by a disgruntled patrician named Lucius Sergius Catilina (Catiline), conspired against the republic. Catiline had been thwarted in his ambitions for the top political post of consul, and charged with abuse of power while serving as governor. He gathered into his conspiracy other disaffected senators and equestrians, and raised an army.

Catiline's plan failed. Read what happened.http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG

The Conspiracy Revealed

On the night of 18 October, 63 B.C., Crassus brought letters to Cicero warning of a plot against Rome that was led by Catiline. This plot came to be known as the Catilinarian Conspiracy.http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG

The Senate is Alarmed

The following day, Cicero, who was consul, read the letters in the Senate. The Senate ordered further investigation and on the 21st, passed the Senatus Consultum Ultimum 'final resolution of the senate'. This gave absolute imperium 'power' to the consuls and created a state of martial law.

The Conspirators Stir up the Countryside

News arrived that slaves were revolting in Capua (in Campania, see map) and Apulia. There was panic in Rome. Praetors were instructed to raise troops. Throughout these events, Catiline remained in Rome; his allies stirring up the trouble in the countryside. But on the 6 of November Catiline announced plans to leave the city to take control of the revolt.

When Cicero started delivering a series of inflammatory speeches against Catiline, the conspirators planned to retaliate by having a tribune stir up the people against Cicero and his unjust accusations. Fires were to be set, and Cicero was to be assassinated.

Ambushing the Conspirators

Meanwhile, the conspirators had approached the Allobroges, a tribe of Gauls. The Allobroges thought better of allying themselves with the Roman traitors and reported the proposal and other details of the conspiracy to their Roman patron, who, in turn, reported to Cicero. The Allobroges were instructed to pretend to go along with the conspirators.

Cicero arranged for troops to ambush the conspirators with the envoys (false allies) at the Milvian Bridge.

Pater Patriae

The conspirators who were caught were executed without trial in December 63. For these summary executions Cicero was honored, hailed as savior of his country (pater patriae).

The Senate then mobilzed troops to face Catiline at Pistoria where Catiline was killed, thereby ending the Conspiracy of Catiline.

Cicero

Cicero produced four orations against Catiline that are considered some of his best rhetorical pieces. He had been supported in the decision to execute by other senators, including the strict moralist and enemy of Caesar, Cato. Since the Senatus Consultum Ultimum had been passed, Cicero technically held the power to do whatever was necessary, including execute, but likewise, he was the one responsible for the deaths of Roman citizens.

Later, Cicero paid a high price for what he did to save the country. Another enemy of Cicero, Publius Clodius, pushed through a law that prosecuted Romans who executed other Romans without trial. The law was clearly designed to give Clodius a way of bringing Cicero to trial. Instead of facing trial, Cicero went into exile.Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

December 11, 2008

THU 11 DEC 2008

bbd By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

In January 2000, NIDS conducted an extensive investigation into the sighting, by
four policemen and over a dozen others, of a large, silent, low-flying black triangular
shaped object. The object was observed flying low in a southwesterly direction between
Highland Illinois and Dupo, located less than 30 miles from St. Louis Missouri. Part of
the flight path took the enormous object within a couple of miles of the perimeter of Scott
Air Force Base. The full report of the NIDS investigation can be read at:
http://www.nidsci.org/news/illinois_contents.html. NIDS did not come to a definite
conclusion regarding the origin of the object sighted in Illinois in January 2000.
In the two years since the Illinois investigation, NIDS has accumulated over 150
separate reports of sightings of large triangular or deltoid shaped objects. The reports
have mainly come from the United States with a small minority from Canada and Europe.
Last year, NIDS noticed and published an apparent correlation between the locations of
the large triangular shaped object sightings and the locations of Air Force Materiel
Command (AFMC) and Air Mobility Command (AMC) bases throughout the United States.
This correlation was checked in two other independent databases and shown to be consistent. To
read the NIDS report on the correlations, see: http://198.63.56.18/pdf/triangularcraftdatabases.pdf
Recently, NIDS was approached by an aircraft designer who had read the Illinois
UFO Report on the NIDS web site and who hypothesized that the object reported by the
four police officers in January 2000 was very reminiscent of a large, lighter than air
(LTA) object using an electrokinetic drive. The individual claimed that by combining
LTA with electrokinetic technology, both of which have been known for decades, the
DoD had likely found a highly synergistic increase in performance and that they had built
this aircraft, probably in the early to mid 1980s.  
Estimates of the Craft’s size and performance characteristics are given below
(BBD= Big Black Delta):
 
BBD Craft Size:
Length  600 feet
Width  300 feet
Height    40 feet
Mass  100 tons


2
Rough surface estimate:
Hz. surface  180,000 ft2
Vt. surface    94,245 ft2
Total Surface 274,245 ft2
 
Thrust per ft2  2.6 lbs per ft2
LTAS “Triship” 1970s.
(62 tons thrust for a square 70 meters per side
217 feet = 47,089 ft2)
http://www.terra.es/personal7/dafero4u/FR2651388/pat_en06.htm
 
Hz. Thrust  468,000 lbs. / 234 tons
Vt. Thrust  245,037 lbs. / 122 tons
Total Thrust  713,037 lbs. / 356 tons
 
With full payload:
 
Vt Thrust to mass   1.06 to 1
Hz Thrust to mass  1.17 to 1
Total Thrust to mass  1.78 to 1
L/M Stealth blimp 1982
Lift
 
Rough volume estimate:
 
Hull volume  3,600,000 ft3
(½ area in horizontal directions for triangular form.)
 
Lift at 10,000 ft 180,000 lbs. / 90 tons
Payload estimate  200,000 lbs / 100 tons
VTOL  
Payload estimate 200,000 lbs /100 tons
April 2002
 
 
NIDS distilled six recurring characteristics from the more than 150 sightings of
large triangular objects in the NIDS database and posed them as questions directly to the
aircraft designer, in order to determine the “fit” for his hypothesis. The questions are as
follows:
(1) Why is it silent?
(2) Why is it brightly lit, sometimes with blinding light?
(3) Why is it seen a lot of times near water/lakes?
(4) How does the object appear to accelerate so quickly from a hovering position?
(5) How does the object turn without banking?
(6) Why the reported huge size (football field size)?


NIDS addresses the answers to these questions below in the form of an essay from the
aircraft designer.
Big Black Deltas (BBDs): DoD, Not ET
(1) Why the huge size (football field size)?
First a bit of rarely mentioned manned flight history and a background of the
implied craft technologies. When George Washington was president (mid 1700s), man
was already flying! First design for airship was made in 1785 by JBM Meusnier.
By the time of the US Civil war (mid 1800s), man had developed working
manned and controlled aircraft.  Reports in the New York Harold of the time mentioned
how lucky the union was that the confederate forces didn’t have such aircraft during the
siege of Washington DC in 1864. The craft was designed and built by the mayor of Perth
Amboy New Jersey USA, Dr. Solomon Andrews, it was called the AEREON. It flew
silently both with and against the wind as it had no conventional engine.
http://www.users.qwest.net/~gdaniel6587/airship.htm
By the mid 1870s the electrically powered French airship “La France” had flown
a number of round trips of an hour or so duration, initiating the beginning of the French
army air corps.  By the mid 1890s the Russian aeronautical and rocket pioneer Konstantin
E. Tsiolkovsky i had designed and built large all metal rigid airships of advanced design.
(It can be speculated that some of the late 1800s “Ghost airships” that were described as
moving at high speed and having “long flaming tails” may have been tests of Tsiolkovsky
type airships with versions of his early rocket engines mounted for propulsion.)
http://www.informatics.org/museum/
All of this means that well developed (but not well documented) manned powered
flight was taking place between 40 years and a decade before the Wright brothers made
their first 12 second, 120 foot airplane flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903 supposedly initiating
the era of manned powered flight. Indeed, for the first 40 years of the 20th century even
with the advent of the airplane, all records for payload, distance, duration and most
importantly in this case, altitude were held by lighter than air (LTA) vehicles including
balloons and large rigid airships. In fact, except for rocket-powered research aircraft (i.e.
the X-15) and the space shuttle, all absolute altitude records are still held by high altitude
scientific balloons.
 Knowing about this LTA altitude capability is important as in the use of airship
the amount of gas required to lift a pound goes up as you gain altitude. A much larger
airship (10 times the physical length) is required to keep the same payload at 75,000 feet
altitude as is required at a thousand feet. Fortunately, the “Square cube law” allows for
this increase in lift ability because as you double the linier size of an enclosed volume the
 
4
surface area of the hull/case squares (is 4 times as great) while the volume and thus the
lift of the hull/case cubes (is 8 times as great).
http://www.isd.uni-stuttgart.de/arbeitsgruppen/airship/halp/phy_b01e.jpg
On a “shoestring budget” the new AEREON corporation of Princeton New Jersey
flew a 26 foot manned version of a hybrid deltoid wingless LTA vehicle with a hull form
designed by the US DOD’s own supercomputer at the Naval Air Development Center
(NADC) in the 1960s (we will assume there was a contract and a contract # for this
design project. DOD CANNOT say they know nothing of large deltoid hybrid LTA
design.)
The BBDs are so large so they can:
1. Carry massive payloads at low altitudes at speeds 3 to 5 times as fast as surface
ships.
2. They can use highly advanced but large and crude power and propulsion systems
in early stages of development. (ie electrokinetic / Field drives or airborne nuclear
power units.)
3. They can fly at extreme altitudes, taking advantage of the LTA’s altitude ability to
stay out of the range of conventional aircraft and ground based traffic control
radars. A number of “public” DOD proposals for High Altitude Platforms (HAPS)
to be used as “sensor platforms” are currently out, and have been since the mid
1950s. It would be foolish to think they had not been answered.
An interesting sidelight to this “Deltoid airship development” is that since it has
abilities far outstripping those of conventional airplanes in many military areas, no
public, commercial companies have been able to acquire funding to develop such craft.
(DOD and NASA funding for both the AEREON corporation and the MICROCRAFT
“AEROCRAFT” were both dropped.) These military mission scenario and the military
applications for the large deltoids are a prime reason that since they can be built, “They
would have been.” But ONLY as “Black projects built by established DOD contractors,”
as stated by DOD representatives at recent aerospace technology conferences, “no matter
how advanced the small companies technologies may be.”
(2) Why is it silent?
 As can be seen above, a number of quiet “unconventional” power systems (as
far as Heavier than air (HTA) airplanes are concerned) are available to LTA craft. With
over 100 years of development time between the flights of the 1860s AEREON, which
employs no motors at all (except for ballast control which it is now possible to do
internally to the craft) to the flights of the electrically powered 1870s “La France” of
electric motor and large diameter slow turning nearly silent ducted internal propeller
development. It seems obvious that a nearly silent “except for a slight humming” of
5
internal power control or generation and propulsion system can be used in the modern
craft.
 In addition to the 1800s version of LTA power systems, several other systems
of silent flight systems that would be improvements to those already mentioned were first
developed in the early and mid 1900s. In the late 1920s, T.T. Brown developed the
electrokinetic (meaning motion from electricity) capacitor. http://www.soteria.com/brown/.
 Modern “hobbyist” versions of this technology and video of numerous
“modern” replications of the unit can be seen and built from free plans and easily gotten
parts at: http://www.americanantigravity.com/.
 By the late 1950s aviation pioneer Alexander de Seversky's IONOCRAFT had
demonstrated a far more advanced, fully controlled, version of such a system. See:
http://www.americanantigravity.com/deseversky.html
http://www.markwilson.com/ioncraft/ioncraft.html
 See the video at: http://www.markwilson.com/ioncraft/ioncraft.avi
 The electrokinetic system shows a number of the “Characteristics” of “UFO”
power systems. It flies with “no visible form of support”, no propellers, jets, and in the
case of a hybrid LTA craft which would NOT use thrust from the drive to hold the ship
up (since it would have aerostatic, lift gas, like a balloon) no downwash like a
helicopter’s. Except for “a slight humming” from high voltage control equipment and an
occasional coronal discharge in the older units it makes no noise.
(3) How come it appears to accelerate so quickly from a hovering position?
 As can be seen from the above data on both the T.T. Brown system, the
IONOCRAFT and the “modern lifter” hobbyist experiments all of the units are VTOL
making for a unit mass to thrust ratio greater than 1. Acceleration rates of up to about 3Gs
are possible with current units. The major problem with ALL of the previous units was
their inability to carry a self-contained power supply for the drive or a useful payload. All
of the past systems are powered by a ground based power system sending power to the
electrokinetic platform by either a tether wire or by microwave link. The maximum
transmission distance of 62 MILES (“Space according to the X-Prize rules) for this link
was the limiting factor to the system’s altitude.
 Because of the “Square/Cube law” mentioned above, an electrokinetic system
combined with LTA technologies - (pp) 1970s by LTAS/CAMBOT llc. - in a way that
makes the hull of such a craft the “engine” with the hull area of such a craft interacting
with the “working fluid” (i.e. The surrounding air) the larger the craft, the “better.” (see
BBD estimate 01 sheet.)
 At low altitudes, the “working fluid” is more dense and a lot of thrust can be
obtained from a fairly small area. As the craft climbs, the working fluid becomes thinner
(both for use in making thrust but also in the amount of air drag) however, since the craft
must also be larger to generate the required static lift the surface area squares (is 4X as
great) producing as much, if not more, thrust even at these higher altitudes where the drag
is much lower. It should be mentioned that another “side effect” of the drive when used
in this manner is a complete control of the boundary layer and the ability to generate
laminar flow over most of the skin of the craft vastly lowering the amount of drag such a
large craft would normally have.
 Even with the fairly low (on the order of a few pounds or so per ft2 of hull
surface) because of the large number of ft2 inherent in an LTA vehicle with either the
required payload or required operating altitude the thrust to mass ratio of such a craft will
be between 1.7 to 1 up to 3 to 1 if lightly loaded. (Carrying only integrated systems like
the radar.)
 A modern jet fighter only has a power to mass ratio of a little over 1 to 1. As
reported such a craft should be able to “pull away” from any modern aircraft trying to
catch it. Note that as often reported “in a climb” such a craft would add the extra
buoyancy of its lift gas (assuming some sort of buoyancy control system) to the
electrokinetic thrust while a jet is fighting its mass with thrust and the craft would pull
away even faster.
 After a certain altitude the jet starts to lose lift from its wings as its engine loses
thrust from intake of the thinning air. A craft as described would continue to climb due to
both its LTA altitude ability and the high altitude operation of the EK drive “Climbing
away” is a well-known scenario when such craft are pursued by aircraft. Another side
effect of such a high voltage external drive would be that if a conventional aircraft
approached it too closely one would expect the electrical systems of such an aircraft to be
overloaded and possible the operation of the engines and other systems stopped. This
effect has frequently been reported. (Great if people are chasing or shooting at you!)
(4) How come it can turn without banking?
 LTA craft use “static lift” not the “lift vector” of aerodynamic surfaces, i.e.
“wings.” They do not normally “bank” when turning. In addition, a craft with the systems
described would have omni directional thrust and in normal circumstances using the top
and bottom surfaces for horizontal thrust would merely “turn” as the thrust vector is
changed with the two surfaces generating equal thrust both pitch and roll motions would
be prevented.
 Crew “G” compensation would be by a 3 axis gimbaled system, which once
again is probably too large in volume and complicated to install into a small jet aircraft
but could easily be accommodated by a craft as described. To the crew of such a craft the
“G” vector is always “Down” Such systems were designed for spacecraft in the 1970s.
(5) Why is it brightly lit, sometimes blinding light?
 Besides the “coronal discharge” often seen with such craft, another reason for
such light displays is the inability of aircraft power systems to rapidly change power
output, (this can be seen in standard jet aircraft where they go to “Cruise power” as soon
as possible and for as long during a flight as possible). If such a craft was operating at
low thrust with a nuclear or other closed cycle power system, it would be best to setup
such a system to produce a steady state amount of power at all times. Power can be
diverted from this unit to both the thrusters on onboard systems. This would also require
some sort of onboard “power storage” and a method of getting rid of excess power at
periods of low power demand like hovering or low speed flight. High power illumination
is a simple (not to mention useful) method of doing this. Lights are fairly small, light in
mass, and in a night flight craft such as this useful in landing when operating at low
altitude and low speed. Such a craft using “optical camouflage” would naturally have a
large number of light producing systems as part of the optical camouflage, further
reducing complexity by using them to a multiple purpose, (landing, “disappearing”, and
blinding pursuit).
 One might also mention that even If the lights did attract public attention it
makes little difference. Conventional aircraft cannot catch one of these craft and side
effects of the drive along with the sensor transparency and active camouflage make
pictures indistinct allowing deniability.
 You saw something….”Prove it !!”
(6) Why is it seen a lot of times near water/lakes?
With their ability to hover eliminating the need for runways and other
infrastructure, such a craft would only have to “go to base” for occasional crew changes
and equipment updates. This would be of great benefit for a craft operating with a high
altitude long duration recon or other platform mission profile. (Think of this as a “Ship”
not an airplane… fair sized crew staying up for a few weeks not hours).
If it is generating power by nuclear, solar, fuel cells or some other closed loop
system then it has only to replace the oxygen used by the crew and its lift gas.(In this case
suspect hydrogen because of increased lift, hard shelled hull, and lower cost…
remembering that it ONLY comes down low enough to be shot at over friendly territory.)
If the power system is not a closed system then hydrogen is a fuel that would provide lift
as well as power.
How would you “refuel” such a craft without having to “go to base?” Simple, use
onboard solar (we have LOTS of surface area for cells) or stored power to electrolyze
water. Water is plentiful, cheap, and can be gotten in remote areas (making sure that they
are uninhabited using your recon sensors even in “enemy” territory.) While ocean water
can be used it would be “better” to use fresh water so as not to corrode your systems.

While hovering at low altitudes or low speeds excess power is available for pumps and
electrolysis equipment.
It should also be mentioned that it would be hard to approach the craft in vehicles
or on foot when it is over water without being seen. That most such “refueling” has been
seen at night and in remote lakes from a distance and that the craft could easily “get away
even if the thrusters are “off line” during such a task by “bumping the buoyancy
controller to full high” and climbing out as mentioned above. Crew oxygen supplies are
replenished at the same time and by the same equipment. It should also be mentioned that
if the EK drive does not work well in vacuum, then these same “Fuels” could be used in a
supplemental “rocket” drive only used at extreme altitudes in conjunction with the
reduced drag operation.
 It should be mentioned that Lockheed was deeply involved with a large, long-
term hydrogen fuel for powered aircraft program as far back as the 1950s.  A lot of the
systems for such a craft would have been developed.
Final Thoughts.
With a number of military mission profiles for such a craft and the technologies to
build it having been well developed for nearly a century would any defense department
NOT build it ?
Given the simplicity of the systems, would the best method of keeping such a
craft “secret” be “alien disinformation” and full denial.  After all, if it is a “Flying saucer”
or requires “element 115” to build it then no one but a superpower would even try?
Even if the EK drive ONLY has a few of the overall effects described above and
well documented, diminished drag, full laminar flow, elimination of sonic shockwaves
(sonic boom), operation from ground level to full vacuum, silent operation. Wouldn’t it
be worth getting it out of the DOD’s “black world” and into commercial products?



 
 

THU 11 DEC 2008

bbd II By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.NET



In January 2000, NIDS conducted an extensive investigation into the sighting, by
four policemen and over a dozen others, of a large, silent, low-flying black triangular
shaped object. The object was observed flying low in a southwesterly direction between
Highland Illinois and Dupo, located less than 30 miles from St. Louis Missouri. Part of
the flight path took the enormous object within a couple of miles of the perimeter of Scott
Air Force Base. The full report of the NIDS investigation can be read at:
http://www.nidsci.org/news/illinois_contents.html. NIDS did not come to a definite
conclusion regarding the origin of the object sighted in Illinois in January 2000.
In the two years since the Illinois investigation, NIDS has accumulated over 150
separate reports of sightings of large triangular or deltoid shaped objects. The reports
have mainly come from the United States with a small minority from Canada and Europe.
Last year, NIDS noticed and published an apparent correlation between the locations of
the large triangular shaped object sightings and the locations of Air Force Materiel
Command (AFMC) and Air Mobility Command (AMC) bases throughout the United States.
http://Louis1J1Sheehan.us



This correlation was checked in two other independent databases and shown to be consistent. To
read the NIDS report on the correlations, see: http://198.63.56.18/pdf/triangularcraftdatabases.pdf
Recently, NIDS was approached by an aircraft designer who had read the Illinois
UFO Report on the NIDS web site and who hypothesized that the object reported by the
four police officers in January 2000 was very reminiscent of a large, lighter than air
(LTA) object using an electrokinetic drive. The individual claimed that by combining
LTA with electrokinetic technology, both of which have been known for decades, the
DoD had likely found a highly synergistic increase in performance and that they had built
this aircraft, probably in the early to mid 1980s.  
Estimates of the Craft’s size and performance characteristics are given below
(BBD= Big Black Delta):
 
BBD Craft Size:
Length  600 feet
Width  300 feet
Height    40 feet
Mass  100 tons  http://Louis-j-sheehan.com






2
Rough surface estimate:
Hz. surface  180,000 ft2
Vt. surface    94,245 ft2
Total Surface 274,245 ft2
 
Thrust per ft2  2.6 lbs per ft2
LTAS “Triship” 1970s.
(62 tons thrust for a square 70 meters per side
217 feet = 47,089 ft2)
http://www.terra.es/personal7/dafero4u/FR2651388/pat_en06.htm
 
Hz. Thrust  468,000 lbs. / 234 tons
Vt. Thrust  245,037 lbs. / 122 tons
Total Thrust  713,037 lbs. / 356 tons
 
With full payload:
 
Vt Thrust to mass   1.06 to 1
Hz Thrust to mass  1.17 to 1
Total Thrust to mass  1.78 to 1
L/M Stealth blimp 1982
Lift
 
Rough volume estimate:
 
Hull volume  3,600,000 ft3
(½ area in horizontal directions for triangular form.)
 
Lift at 10,000 ft 180,000 lbs. / 90 tons
Payload estimate  200,000 lbs / 100 tons
VTOL  
Payload estimate 200,000 lbs /100 tons
April 2002
 
 
NIDS distilled six recurring characteristics from the more than 150 sightings of
large triangular objects in the NIDS database and posed them as questions directly to the
aircraft designer, in order to determine the “fit” for his hypothesis. The questions are as
follows:
(1) Why is it silent?
(2) Why is it brightly lit, sometimes with blinding light?
(3) Why is it seen a lot of times near water/lakes?
(4) How does the object appear to accelerate so quickly from a hovering position?
(5) How does the object turn without banking?
(6) Why the reported huge size (football field size)?
http://Louis-J-Sheehan.biz






NIDS addresses the answers to these questions below in the form of an essay from the
aircraft designer.
Big Black Deltas (BBDs): DoD, Not ET
(1) Why the huge size (football field size)?
First a bit of rarely mentioned manned flight history and a background of the
implied craft technologies. When George Washington was president (mid 1700s), man
was already flying! First design for airship was made in 1785 by JBM Meusnier.
By the time of the US Civil war (mid 1800s), man had developed working
manned and controlled aircraft.  Reports in the New York Harold of the time mentioned
how lucky the union was that the confederate forces didn’t have such aircraft during the
siege of Washington DC in 1864. http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de



The craft was designed and built by the mayor of Perth
Amboy New Jersey USA, Dr. Solomon Andrews, it was called the AEREON. It flew
silently both with and against the wind as it had no conventional engine.
http://www.users.qwest.net/~gdaniel6587/airship.htm
By the mid 1870s the electrically powered French airship “La France” had flown
a number of round trips of an hour or so duration, initiating the beginning of the French
army air corps.  By the mid 1890s the Russian aeronautical and rocket pioneer Konstantin
E. Tsiolkovsky i had designed and built large all metal rigid airships of advanced design.
(It can be speculated that some of the late 1800s “Ghost airships” that were described as
moving at high speed and having “long flaming tails” may have been tests of Tsiolkovsky
type airships with versions of his early rocket engines mounted for propulsion.)
http://www.informatics.org/museum/
All of this means that well developed (but not well documented) manned powered
flight was taking place between 40 years and a decade before the Wright brothers made
their first 12 second, 120 foot airplane flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903 supposedly initiating
the era of manned powered flight. Indeed, for the first 40 years of the 20th century even
with the advent of the airplane, all records for payload, distance, duration and most
importantly in this case, altitude were held by lighter than air (LTA) vehicles including
balloons and large rigid airships. In fact, except for rocket-powered research aircraft (i.e.
the X-15) and the space shuttle, all absolute altitude records are still held by high altitude
scientific balloons.
 Knowing about this LTA altitude capability is important as in the use of airship
the amount of gas required to lift a pound goes up as you gain altitude. A much larger
airship (10 times the physical length) is required to keep the same payload at 75,000 feet
altitude as is required at a thousand feet. Fortunately, the “Square cube law” allows for
this increase in lift ability because as you double the linier size of an enclosed volume the
 
4
surface area of the hull/case squares (is 4 times as great) while the volume and thus the
lift of the hull/case cubes (is 8 times as great).
http://www.isd.uni-stuttgart.de/arbeitsgruppen/airship/halp/phy_b01e.jpg
On a “shoestring budget” the new AEREON corporation of Princeton New Jersey
flew a 26 foot manned version of a hybrid deltoid wingless LTA vehicle with a hull form
designed by the US DOD’s own supercomputer at the Naval Air Development Center
(NADC) in the 1960s (we will assume there was a contract and a contract # for this
design project. DOD CANNOT say they know nothing of large deltoid hybrid LTA
design.) Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.INFO

The BBDs are so large so they can:
1. Carry massive payloads at low altitudes at speeds 3 to 5 times as fast as surface
ships.
2. They can use highly advanced but large and crude power and propulsion systems
in early stages of development. (ie electrokinetic / Field drives or airborne nuclear
power units.)
3. They can fly at extreme altitudes, taking advantage of the LTA’s altitude ability to
stay out of the range of conventional aircraft and ground based traffic control
radars. A number of “public” DOD proposals for High Altitude Platforms (HAPS)
to be used as “sensor platforms” are currently out, and have been since the mid
1950s. It would be foolish to think they had not been answered.
An interesting sidelight to this “Deltoid airship development” is that since it has
abilities far outstripping those of conventional airplanes in many military areas, no
public, commercial companies have been able to acquire funding to develop such craft.
(DOD and NASA funding for both the AEREON corporation and the MICROCRAFT
“AEROCRAFT” were both dropped.) These military mission scenario and the military
applications for the large deltoids are a prime reason that since they can be built, “They
would have been.” But ONLY as “Black projects built by established DOD contractors,”
as stated by DOD representatives at recent aerospace technology conferences, “no matter
how advanced the small companies technologies may be.”
(2) Why is it silent?
 As can be seen above, a number of quiet “unconventional” power systems (as
far as Heavier than air (HTA) airplanes are concerned) are available to LTA craft. With
over 100 years of development time between the flights of the 1860s AEREON, which
employs no motors at all (except for ballast control which it is now possible to do
internally to the craft) to the flights of the electrically powered 1870s “La France” of
electric motor and large diameter slow turning nearly silent ducted internal propeller
development. It seems obvious that a nearly silent “except for a slight humming” of
5
internal power control or generation and propulsion system can be used in the modern
craft.
 In addition to the 1800s version of LTA power systems, several other systems
of silent flight systems that would be improvements to those already mentioned were first
developed in the early and mid 1900s. In the late 1920s, T.T. Brown developed the
electrokinetic (meaning motion from electricity) capacitor. http://www.soteria.com/brown/.
 Modern “hobbyist” versions of this technology and video of numerous
“modern” replications of the unit can be seen and built from free plans and easily gotten
parts at: http://www.americanantigravity.com/.
 By the late 1950s aviation pioneer Alexander de Seversky's IONOCRAFT had
demonstrated a far more advanced, fully controlled, version of such a system. See:
http://www.americanantigravity.com/deseversky.html
http://www.markwilson.com/ioncraft/ioncraft.html
 See the video at: http://www.markwilson.com/ioncraft/ioncraft.avi
 The electrokinetic system shows a number of the “Characteristics” of “UFO”
power systems. It flies with “no visible form of support”, no propellers, jets, and in the
case of a hybrid LTA craft which would NOT use thrust from the drive to hold the ship
up (since it would have aerostatic, lift gas, like a balloon) no downwash like a
helicopter’s. Except for “a slight humming” from high voltage control equipment and an
occasional coronal discharge in the older units it makes no noise.
(3) How come it appears to accelerate so quickly from a hovering position?
 As can be seen from the above data on both the T.T. Brown system, the
IONOCRAFT and the “modern lifter” hobbyist experiments all of the units are VTOL
making for a unit mass to thrust ratio greater than 1. Acceleration rates of up to about 3Gs
are possible with current units. The major problem with ALL of the previous units was
their inability to carry a self-contained power supply for the drive or a useful payload. All
of the past systems are powered by a ground based power system sending power to the
electrokinetic platform by either a tether wire or by microwave link. The maximum
transmission distance of 62 MILES (“Space according to the X-Prize rules) for this link
was the limiting factor to the system’s altitude.
 Because of the “Square/Cube law” mentioned above, an electrokinetic system
combined with LTA technologies - (pp) 1970s by LTAS/CAMBOT llc. - in a way that
makes the hull of such a craft the “engine” with the hull area of such a craft interacting
with the “working fluid” (i.e. The surrounding air) the larger the craft, the “better.” (see
BBD estimate 01 sheet.)
 At low altitudes, the “working fluid” is more dense and a lot of thrust can be
obtained from a fairly small area. As the craft climbs, the working fluid becomes thinner
(both for use in making thrust but also in the amount of air drag) however, since the craft
must also be larger to generate the required static lift the surface area squares (is 4X as
great) producing as much, if not more, thrust even at these higher altitudes where the drag
is much lower. It should be mentioned that another “side effect” of the drive when used
in this manner is a complete control of the boundary layer and the ability to generate
laminar flow over most of the skin of the craft vastly lowering the amount of drag such a
large craft would normally have.
http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG




 Even with the fairly low (on the order of a few pounds or so per ft2 of hull
surface) because of the large number of ft2 inherent in an LTA vehicle with either the
required payload or required operating altitude the thrust to mass ratio of such a craft will
be between 1.7 to 1 up to 3 to 1 if lightly loaded. (Carrying only integrated systems like
the radar.)
 A modern jet fighter only has a power to mass ratio of a little over 1 to 1. As
reported such a craft should be able to “pull away” from any modern aircraft trying to
catch it. Note that as often reported “in a climb” such a craft would add the extra
buoyancy of its lift gas (assuming some sort of buoyancy control system) to the
electrokinetic thrust while a jet is fighting its mass with thrust and the craft would pull
away even faster.
 After a certain altitude the jet starts to lose lift from its wings as its engine loses
thrust from intake of the thinning air. A craft as described would continue to climb due to
both its LTA altitude ability and the high altitude operation of the EK drive “Climbing
away” is a well-known scenario when such craft are pursued by aircraft. Another side
effect of such a high voltage external drive would be that if a conventional aircraft
approached it too closely one would expect the electrical systems of such an aircraft to be
overloaded and possible the operation of the engines and other systems stopped. This
effect has frequently been reported. (Great if people are chasing or shooting at you!)
(4) How come it can turn without banking?
 LTA craft use “static lift” not the “lift vector” of aerodynamic surfaces, i.e.
“wings.” They do not normally “bank” when turning. In addition, a craft with the systems
described would have omni directional thrust and in normal circumstances using the top
and bottom surfaces for horizontal thrust would merely “turn” as the thrust vector is
changed with the two surfaces generating equal thrust both pitch and roll motions would
be prevented.
 Crew “G” compensation would be by a 3 axis gimbaled system, which once
again is probably too large in volume and complicated to install into a small jet aircraft
but could easily be accommodated by a craft as described. To the crew of such a craft the
“G” vector is always “Down” Such systems were designed for spacecraft in the 1970s.
(5) Why is it brightly lit, sometimes blinding light?
 Besides the “coronal discharge” often seen with such craft, another reason for
such light displays is the inability of aircraft power systems to rapidly change power
output, (this can be seen in standard jet aircraft where they go to “Cruise power” as soon
as possible and for as long during a flight as possible). If such a craft was operating at
low thrust with a nuclear or other closed cycle power system, it would be best to setup
such a system to produce a steady state amount of power at all times. Power can be
diverted from this unit to both the thrusters on onboard systems. This would also require
some sort of onboard “power storage” and a method of getting rid of excess power at
periods of low power demand like hovering or low speed flight. High power illumination
is a simple (not to mention useful) method of doing this. Lights are fairly small, light in
mass, and in a night flight craft such as this useful in landing when operating at low
altitude and low speed. Such a craft using “optical camouflage” would naturally have a
large number of light producing systems as part of the optical camouflage, further
reducing complexity by using them to a multiple purpose, (landing, “disappearing”, and
blinding pursuit). http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.NET




 One might also mention that even If the lights did attract public attention it
makes little difference. Conventional aircraft cannot catch one of these craft and side
effects of the drive along with the sensor transparency and active camouflage make
pictures indistinct allowing deniability.
 You saw something….”Prove it !!”
(6) Why is it seen a lot of times near water/lakes?
With their ability to hover eliminating the need for runways and other
infrastructure, such a craft would only have to “go to base” for occasional crew changes
and equipment updates. This would be of great benefit for a craft operating with a high
altitude long duration recon or other platform mission profile. (Think of this as a “Ship”
not an airplane… fair sized crew staying up for a few weeks not hours).
If it is generating power by nuclear, solar, fuel cells or some other closed loop
system then it has only to replace the oxygen used by the crew and its lift gas.(In this case
suspect hydrogen because of increased lift, hard shelled hull, and lower cost…
remembering that it ONLY comes down low enough to be shot at over friendly territory.)
If the power system is not a closed system then hydrogen is a fuel that would provide lift
as well as power.
How would you “refuel” such a craft without having to “go to base?” Simple, use
onboard solar (we have LOTS of surface area for cells) or stored power to electrolyze
water. Water is plentiful, cheap, and can be gotten in remote areas (making sure that they
are uninhabited using your recon sensors even in “enemy” territory.) While ocean water
can be used it would be “better” to use fresh water so as not to corrode your systems.

While hovering at low altitudes or low speeds excess power is available for pumps and
electrolysis equipment.
It should also be mentioned that it would be hard to approach the craft in vehicles
or on foot when it is over water without being seen. That most such “refueling” has been
seen at night and in remote lakes from a distance and that the craft could easily “get away
even if the thrusters are “off line” during such a task by “bumping the buoyancy
controller to full high” and climbing out as mentioned above. Crew oxygen supplies are
replenished at the same time and by the same equipment. It should also be mentioned that
if the EK drive does not work well in vacuum, then these same “Fuels” could be used in a
supplemental “rocket” drive only used at extreme altitudes in conjunction with the
reduced drag operation.
 It should be mentioned that Lockheed was deeply involved with a large, long-
term hydrogen fuel for powered aircraft program as far back as the 1950s.  A lot of the
systems for such a craft would have been developed.
Final Thoughts.
With a number of military mission profiles for such a craft and the technologies to
build it having been well developed for nearly a century would any defense department
NOT build it ?
Given the simplicity of the systems, would the best method of keeping such a
craft “secret” be “alien disinformation” and full denial.  After all, if it is a “Flying saucer”
or requires “element 115” to build it then no one but a superpower would even try?
Even if the EK drive ONLY has a few of the overall effects described above and
well documented, diminished drag, full laminar flow, elimination of sonic shockwaves
(sonic boom), operation from ground level to full vacuum, silent operation. Wouldn’t it
be worth getting it out of the DOD’s “black world” and into commercial products?



 
 

December 12, 2008

FRI 12 DEC 2008

intelligence By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Single-celled slime molds demonstrate the ability to memorize and anticipate repeated events, a team of Japanese researchers reported in January. The study [pdf] clearly shows “a primitive version of brain function” in an organism with no brain at all. http://sheehan.myblogsite.com

In their experiment, biophysicist Toshiyuki Nakagaki of Hokkaido University and colleagues manipulated the environment of Physarum slime-mold amoebas (near right). As the cells crawled across an agar plate, the researchers subjected them to cold, dry conditions for the first 10 minutes of every hour. During these cool spells, the cells slowed down their motion. After three cold snaps the scientists stopped changing the temperature and humidity and watched to see whether the amoebas had learned the pattern. Sure enough, many of the cells throttled back right on the hour in anticipation of another bout of cold weather. When conditions stayed stable for a while, the slime-mold amoebas gave up on their hourly braking, but when another single jolt of cold was applied, they resumed the behavior and correctly recalled the 60-minute interval. The amoebas were also able to respond to other intervals, ranging from 30 to 90 minutes. http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com

The scientists point out that catching on to temporal patterns is no mean feat, even for humans. For a single cell to show such a learning ability is impressive, though Nakagaki admits he was not entirely surprised by the results. After working with the slime mold for years, he had a hunch that “Physarum could be cleverer than expected.” The findings of what lone cells are capable of “might be a chance to reconsider what intelligence is,” he says.  Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

December 20, 2008

SAT 20 DEC 2008

orbiting 8.0rb.111 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire .  Analyses of satellite data reveal that Earth’s atmosphere expands and contracts in response to short-term variations in the solar wind. Understanding this previously unrecognized phenomenon and how it affects objects traveling in low-Earth orbits will enable scientists to better track satellites, and to track the space junk that threatens them. http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com

Besides the more than 800 satellites in low-Earth orbit, more than 17,000 pieces of space junk also circle the planet, reported Jeffrey P. Thayer, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Colorado at Boulder, December 15 at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Researchers have long known that variations in the amount of certain wavelengths of ultraviolet light emitted by the sun cause the planet’s atmosphere to swell and shrink. http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com The higher the amount of incoming UV radiation, the warmer the upper atmosphere becomes and the more it expands toward space, Thayer says.

Variations in the UV flux can also result from Earth’s rotation, causing daily fluctuations in the atmosphere.

And scientists have identified an 11-year cycle that’s linked to long-term variations in solar activity (SN: 1/20/01, p. 45) and a 27-day cycle that’s linked to the time it takes the sun to complete one rotation, says Thayer.

Recently, while analyzing data gathered in 2005 by a German satellite that orbits Earth at an altitude of about 400 kilometers, Thayer and his colleagues found a 9-day-long cycle in atmospheric fluctuations that lasted most of 2005. At the peak of each cycle, atmospheric density — which, at a height of 400 kilometers, is typically measured in billionths of a gram per cubic meter — would be approximately double that measured at the low point of the cycle, the researchers reported.

The nine-day fluctuation in atmospheric density at high altitude “was a surprising finding” that wasn’t correlated with any variation in solar UV flux, says Thayer.

Instead, he and his colleagues found, the short-term cycle matched variations in the speed of the solar wind striking the top of Earth’s atmosphere. High-speed blasts of solar wind originate from holes in the sun’s outer atmosphere, or corona, that are located at low solar latitudes, says Thayer. When those faster-than-average particles strike the atmosphere, the air heats up and expands to higher altitudes. As the satellites orbiting at those altitudes suddenly encounter thicker air, they slow down. Because the sun rotates once every 27 days and sported three low-latitude coronal holes for most of 2005, surges in solar wind swept by Earth, on average, every nine days.

The variations in the speed of solar wind noted by Thayer and his team also affected the chemistry of Earth’s upper atmosphere, says Geoff Crowley, an atmospheric physicist with Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates in San Antonio. Using data gathered by a satellite launched in late 2001, Crowley and his colleagues saw a nine-day cycle in the concentrations of monatomic oxygen (O) and diatomic nitrogen (N₂) in the upper atmosphere, created by chemical reactions the barrage of high-energy particles triggered. “This [cycle] was completely unexpected,” he reported at the meeting.http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com

The new findings, along with full-time observations of the sun, may enable researchers to better estimate variations in the density of Earth’s upper atmosphere, says Thayer. http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com Such estimates would in turn allow better prediction of the paths of low-flying satellites and orbiting space junk, so that warnings about possible collisions would be sharper and the number of maneuvers that satellites must make to avoid such collisions fewer.Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

December 21, 2008

SUN 21 DEC 2008

corkin 3.cor.00e Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire .  EACH time Suzanne Corkin met H.M. during one of his visits to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, she would ask him if they had met before. He would smile and say yes, and when she asked him where he would reply, “In high school.” They did not actually meet until he was in his late 30s, but they worked together for nearly five decades, and the last time they met he still failed to recognise her. The most she ever elicited in him was a sense of familiarity. More extraordinary still, a sense of familiarity was all his own face elicited in him. People were fascinated by H.M., for whom life came to a standstill in 1953, and one of the questions they always asked about him was what happened when he looked in the mirror. Dr Corkin reports that there was no change in his facial expression, his conversation continued in a matter-of-fact tone and he did not seem upset—though this could have been because of the damage done to his amygdalas, brain structures that are important for processing emotion. Once, in the later years, when she asked him what he was thinking as he gazed at his reflection, he replied, “I’m not a boy.” H.M., or Henry M.—his family name was kept secret until he died—grew up in the countryside outside Hartford, Connecticut. He was 16 when he suffered his first grand mal epileptic seizure. The fits became more frequent, delaying his graduation from high school and, later, preventing him from holding down a job, though he tried to work on an assembly line. By the time he was 27 he was having as many as 11 seizures a week and was on near-toxic doses of anti-convulsants. His desperate parents were referred to William Beecher Scoville, a neurosurgeon at Hartford Hospital. It was 1953 and psychosurgery—which was later to be banned, or at least restricted, in many countries—was at the height of its popularity. Scoville himself had performed frontal lobotomies, though he was dissatisfied with the way they blunted his patients’ emotions. In some ways H.M. was a product of that dissatisfaction, because Scoville had been working on a new, experimental operation, and he decided to try it on H.M. He would remove his medial temporal lobes (one on each side of the brain), the presumed origin of his seizures. Each lobe includes an amygdala and a seahorse-shaped structure called the hippocampus. The operation was successful: H.M. experienced only two serious seizures during the subsequent year. But this happy outcome came at a terrible price. From the date of the operation he was unable to form new memories, and he also lost many of the memories he had laid down before it. Although he could recall the Wall Street crash and the second world war, he was left with no autobiographical memories at all. Having seen the effects of his handiwork, a shocked Scoville began to campaign against the operation. This meant that H.M. was the only person ever to undergo it. http://louis_j_sheehan.today.com Tracing a star Two years later Scoville invited Brenda Milner, a neuropsychologist who had been studying post-operative amnesia, to come and study H.M. Her work had led her to suspect that the hippocampus was important for forming memories, and that it might be the place where they are stored. In the decades that followed, the experiments that first she and then her student Dr Corkin conducted with H.M. produced a more complex picture. http://www.myspace.com/louis_j_sheehan_esquire One of the most striking experiments had H.M. tracing a star between two parallel lines, when he could see his drawing hand only in a mirror. With practice his performance improved, though he always denied having attempted the task before. This led Dr Milner to propose a distinction between procedural memory (memory for a skill) and declarative memory (conscious recall of having used that skill), and to suggest that the two are stored in different places. Thanks to H.M., the scientists also learned that the hippocampus is crucial in forming some long-term memories, but not for maintaining or retrieving them. It has often been said that a man with no memory can have no sense of self. Both Dr Milner and Dr Corkin disagree. H.M. had a sense of humour, even if he was capable of telling the same anecdote three times in 15 minutes. He was polite, and would cup Dr Corkin’s elbow as they walked around MIT. Everybody liked him, though it was a temptation for those who knew him to patronise him, to treat him like a favourite child or pet, such was the inequality of his and their knowledge about his life. It was a temptation, Dr Milner says, that they struggled against daily. H.M. held no grudge against Dr Scoville. http://myface.com/Louis_J_Sheehan In fact, he dreamed of becoming a neurosurgeon, though he always said that could never happen, because blood spurting from the incision would cloud his glasses, preventing him from doing his best for the patient. By the time this obituary appears he will have gone under the knife again, this time for an autopsy. Before long his brain will appear in three digitised dimensions on the internet, for researchers to pore over. http://louis-j-sheehan-esquire.blog.friendster.com He never knew how much he contributed to science, says Dr Corkin, but if someone had told him it would have given him a warm, fuzzy feeling—for a few seconds, at least. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Copyright © 2008 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

SUN 21 DEC 2008

new 8.new.00909 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

New competitor brings concern
Sunday, December 21, 2008
BY JAN MURPHY
Of The Patriot-News

The region's higher-education leaders have begun looking at Harrisburg University of Science and Technology like a son's new girlfriend who shows up at a family holiday dinner. http://www.blog.ca/user/Beforethebigbang

Some go out of their way to welcome her. Others ignore her. Some sit around whispering about her.

And then there are those like Elizabethtown College President Theodore Long who bluntly say they wish the newcomer weren't here.

"Let's be straight about it. At the outset, I don't think any of us thought that we needed another higher-education institution in the region," Long said. http://www.blog.ca/user/Beforethebigbang

But Harrisburg University is here. Its enrollment has grown to about 350 students and plans to transplant its operation to a new 16-story tower at Fourth and Market streets.

Since arriving on the scene in 2005, the private university's quest to establish the school and construct a permanent location has garnered it millions of dollars in public funds. That has not gone unnoticed by other higher-education officials whose own capital or funding needs go unfulfilled.

Also on their minds is that some see Pennsylvania's higher-education system as overbuilt. Only California and Texas have more colleges and universities. And Pennsylvania's colleges are facing a projected 10-year decline in the number of graduates exiting Pennsylvania high schools.

The competition for students is growing fiercer, as is the one for public funds, they said.

Now another university is added to the mix.

No doubt Harrisburg University hopes its move to a state-of-the-art building will send a signal that it is for real and here for the long run, Long said.

"That will likely give some people confidence that they are a player, at least they hope that will be the case," he said. "But in this particular economic time, I just don't know."

Others agree the jury is out on what the new building will mean for the fledging university's future. Melissa Vayda, Central Pennsylvania College's vice president and chief academic officer, is an enthusiastic supporter. The attention surrounding the grand opening might result in an enrollment bounce for the school, she said.

For Penn State University, which felt that its Lower Swatara Twp. campus was the capital city's university, the new building's opening is no cause for celebration. Penn State saw six cuts in state funding this decade once Harrisburg University was born, said Bill Mahon, PSU's vice president for university relations.

"While the state struggles to fund its established universities at an appropriate level, we did not think the timing was right to launch a new institution," Mahon said.

Leaders at several of the region's colleges and universities declined requests to talk about the newcomer to the region's higher-education scene and its new facility. One representative offhandedly dismissed Harrisburg University as "that 200-student school."

Others said they are open to partnering with the new university, particularly after it wins accreditation, which is expected next year.

Temple University's Harrisburg center, which lent classrooms to Harrisburg University while the latter's building was under construction, hopes to attract some of its graduates to Temple's master's programs, director Link Martin said. Central Pennsylvania College looks forward to sharing faculty and programs. Pennsylvania College of Technology and the state universities are exploring ways they can work together.

Many college and university officials tried to dissuade Mayor Stephen R. Reed and business leaders from chasing their dream of opening a university in the city. They urged them to look to existing colleges to meet the voids in higher-education needs they identified, but to no avail.

Perhaps the only good that came out of their protests was to persuade Reed and the others to open a university with a narrow focus on science and technology, Long said.http://www.blog.ca/user/Beforethebigbang

Don Francis, president of the Association of Independent Colleges and Universities of Pennsylvania, was not surprised by the college leaders' silence on this subject.

"We're going to be entering a very competitive time because there [are] a lot of [colleges and universities in the state] and there aren't enough students. Are other people nervous about a new competitor? Sure," Francis said.

But he joins those who see Harrisburg University as good for the city. Francis said he views its focused mission on turning out graduates in science, technology, engineering and mathematics as good for the region's economy and its ties to SciTech High as a way to inspire students who might not otherwise go to college to pursue a college degree.

"If Harrisburg University is able to reach out to one of those students ... they will have done something of value for everybody," said John Cavanaugh, chancellor of the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education.

Correspondent John Beauge contributed to this story. JAN MURPHY: 232-0668 or jmurphy@patriot-news.com

©2008 Patriot-News
© 2008 PennLive.com All Rights Reserved.



Harrisburg University
[HOME]
Cutting edge, iconic, futuristic, high-profile, state of the art, high-tech, ambitious, costly, symbolic, prominent, a gamble?
Sunday, December 21, 2008
BY JOHN LUCIEW
Of The Patriot-News

Harrisburg's upstart university is no longer without a home of its own.

The Harrisburg University of Science and Technology is poised to open a prominent, 16-story headquarters tower outfitted with a rooftop overhang shaped like a graduation cap.

University administrators and city officials are hoping the signature building, among the tallest in Harrisburg, will serve as a high-profile welcome mat and advertising billboard that will attract new students and donor contributions.

At the very least, the $73 million tower should get the university noticed, said Mayor Stephen R. Reed, a driving force for the school since its inception.

"The building is iconic," he said. "It's part of the skyline. It's a futuristic design. It's a terrific high-tech facility. It becomes symbolic of the university. We now have permanent quarters that will become the face of the university."

More than a mere home, the building and its systems in every aspect communicate the university's mission -- to produce a small army of graduates with the computer, biotechnology and programming skills sought by regional employers.

"It's the physical and technical representation of what we stand for," university Executive Vice President Eric Darr said. "It's the physical manifestation of who we are."

But at 371,000 square feet, is the tower too big, too costly and too ambitious for a university still in its infancy?

As it is, the 4-year-old learning institution, with 350 full- and part-time students, can't begin to fill the technology-endowed building. In that respect, the tower represents a huge wager on the old saying, "If you build it, they will come."

"What we have there is 20 years of potential," university President Mel Schiavelli said.

He readily admitted that the project was somewhat of an unconventional gamble -- but so was launching the university in the first place. After all, Pennsylvania hadn't seen a similar academic start-up in a century.

"This is not necessarily what a start-up entity would do, but to have a home was important," Schiavelli said. "It's one of the essential pieces -- faculty and students and a great place to teach and learn."

Space to spur growth:

The goal is to have 1,000 students within five years. The building has a capacity for 1,600 to 1,800 students, including two floors purposely left unfinished floors for future growth.

Officials admitted walking a fine line in rightsizing the tower. Build it too small, and you limit growth potential and could be pushed into another costly building project way too soon. Build it too big, and an academic setting so carefully designed to represent the cutting-edge crosscurrents of science, technology and higher education could feel empty, soulless and unexciting instead.

"Right now, the single biggest problem we've had is space to accommodate the university's growth," Reed said, referring to the school's current quarters in Strawberry Square after starting out in the Harrisburg School District's SciTech High building in the 200 block of Market Street. http://www.blog.ca/user/Beforethebigbang

"Before the new academic center, if we had 100 new students coming in, we'd be hard-pressed to find the space," Reed said.

Even before classes begin there -- they're to start next month -- there are signs the new tower is working as a huge advertisement for the university.

Spokesman Steve Infanti said enrollment inquiries are up 216 percent this year -- meaning well more than 3,000 prospective students are in various stages of kicking the tires for possible enrollment there in the fall of 2009.

"They see a physical presence," Schiavelli said. "It's not just a dream. You've got to feel the goods. Getting them here and having something we have pride in showing them -- that's an absolutely essential piece."

Beacon for donors:

Ryan T. Riley, the university's manager of development and alumni relations, is banking that the tower will do the same for donations as the university works to build its endowment.

"For donors, it's something real," he said. "They see their investment. They can touch it. It's tangible."

Added Darr, "From the day we started digging, people said, 'I guess they're serious.'"

So far, about $32.8 million in pledges have come in since the university launched its current capital campaign, which was timed around the tower's groundbreaking two years ago. And Marcus Lingenfelter, vice president for university advancement, noted that contributions continued coming in this year even as the economy flagged.

"The university is fortunate to be keeping pace with last year's record level of private donations," Lingenfelter said, a fact he attributed at least partially to the tower.

Most of all, the new building is a most welcome home for the students, who were relegated to a somewhat nomadic existence in the university's early years.

"It will finally feel like Harrisburg University has a concrete place in the city," said Ashley Harris of Harrisburg.

"The new building is amazing, and I feel it will erase all doubt that anyone had before," added the 20-year-old who is studying electronics.

"I really look forward to the new building because of the abundant space that will be available for different activities, as well as more study zones within the school," said junior Oluyemi Afuape of Fredericksburg, He transferred to Harrisburg two years ago to study integrated sciences after attending a New York community college.

Yet both students said they didn't select Harrisburg for the bells and whistles of the new building.

"Teachers and staff are very helpful, and I feel as if I'm learning a lot more due to the family-oriented staff," Afuape said.

Added Harris: "I was only semi-aware that it was going to be built when I started ... so it wasn't a huge factor. I was drawn to HU because it had a group of people that seemed 100 percent dedicated and committed to making it become something great. As everyone can tell now, it went from being something so small to something huge."

An open, urban setting:

By any measure, the building has the goods.

At every turn, technology is woven throughout the fabric of the tower -- from the "smart cards" that operate everything from the elevators to vending machines to the labs and classrooms wired to the hilt with computers, cameras and Internet connections.

"Everybody gets to come and play with the toys to learn how to behave and work in a laboratory," Darr said.

The floor design is open, with large corridors and lots of glass allowing students to congregate while never forgetting they're downtown. Several floors are tied together by vertical openings among the floors, creating a collegial feel, not a corporate one.

"Universities are for an open exchange of ideas," Schiavelli said. "We wanted a building that was open to open thinking."

Finally, the building's prominent location at Fourth and Market streets represents its belief in enticing urban students to embark on science and technology careers, fulfilling the staffing needs of regional businesses.

The downtown location also saved money.

By tunneling into Strawberry Square, Harrisburg's urban mall, the university needn't bother building a student union and cafeteria.

"My view is the [Strawberry Square] food court is the student union, and Bricco [a nearby restaurant on South Third Street] is the faculty club," Schiavelli said.

Going forward, student housing might be the next economic spinoff from the downtown university.

Officials have said one-fourth of the university's students move downtown to live upon enrolling at the university. If that ratio holds as rolls expand, there'll be a pressing need for housing that university officials hope private developers will move to fill.

"We have to start thinking about what type of housing might be available," Schiavelli said. "Having 250 people living here would change the character of the downtown. That's what universities do, and that's what makes them desirable things to have in your city or town."

JOHN LUCIEW: 255-8171 or jluciew@patriot-news.com

©2008 Patriot-News
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Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

December 22, 2008

MON 22 DEC 2008

activity 88.act.00100 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire . By age 3, children diagnosed with autism have already begun a retreat into social isolation. Psychologist Geraldine Dawson of the University of Washington in Seattle and her coworkers have found that the children's brain-wave activity indicates an inability even to distinguish their own mothers' faces from those of strangers.  http://www.blog.ca/user/Beforethebigbang

In social situations, these children focus on other peoples' mouths rather than their eyes, Dawson theorizes. As a result, she says, the development of the brain's face-recognition system  gets derailed. http://louis_j_sheehan.today.com

Autism typically isn't diagnosed until at least age 3. The condition includes severe difficulties in interacting and communicating with others.

Dawson's group studied 34 children with autism or a related disorder, 16 with developmental problems unrelated to autism, and 19 who had no developmental disorders. The kids were 3 to 4 years old.

Each child wore a cap holding 64 electrodes that recorded brain-wave responses as experimenters presented images of his or her mother's face, an unfamiliar woman's face, a favorite toy from home, and an unfamiliar toy. http://louis_j_sheehan.today.com

Spikes in the brain's electrical activity signaled recognition of the mother's face and favorite toy in both healthy children and those with disorders other than autism. Brain-wave responses of children with autism indicated that they distinguished favorite toys from novel ones but not their mothers' faces from strangers', the researchers report in the May/June Child Development.

December 24, 2008

WED 24 DEC 2008

reconstruction 7.rec.003 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire December 23, 2008 The Price of Beauty Some Hidden Choices in Breast Reconstruction By NATASHA SINGER For many cancer patients undergoing mastectomies, reconstructive breast surgery can seem like a first step to reclaiming their bodies. http://louis9j9sheehan9esquire.blog.ca But even as promising new operations are gaining traction at academic medical centers, plastic surgeons often fail to tell patients about them. One reason is that not all surgeons have trained to perform the latest procedures. Another reason is money: some complex surgeries are less profitable for doctors and hospitals, so they have less of an incentive to offer them, doctors say. “It is clear that many reconstruction patients are not being given the full picture of their options,” said Diana Zuckerman, the president of the National Research Center for Women and Families, a nonprofit group in Washington. http://www.soulcast.com/Louis3J3Sheehan One patient, Felicia Hodges, a 41-year-old magazine publisher in Newburgh, N.Y., chose a double mastectomy after she was found to have cancer of the right breast in 2004. She consulted a plastic surgeon, who offered her only reconstruction with breast implants, she said. Ms. Hodges chose implants filled with saline, a procedure for which more than a third of reconstruction patients underwent a follow-up operation, studies show. Ms. Hodges developed wound-healing problems that required her surgeon to remove her right implant, and she was left with a concave chest with a quarter-size hole in it, she said; she described the experience as “worse than the mastectomy.” Then Ms. Hodges discovered a chat room on the patient-information Web site breastcancer.org, where women share detailed information about breast reconstruction beyond what they may have heard from their doctors. Ms. Hodges learned of newer, more complex procedures that involve transplanting a wedge of fat and blood vessels from the abdomen or buttocks, which would be refashioned to form new breasts. “It’s unfortunate that a lot of general surgeons, breast surgeons and plastic surgeons don’t mention it,” said Ms. Hodges, who underwent one of the surgeries, known as a GAP flap, last year. A lifelong athlete and a karate enthusiast, she is now back at her dojo. To raise awareness of breast reconstruction and to market it to patients, the American Society of Plastic Surgeons has adopted the vocabulary of the movement to support a woman’s freedom to choose an abortion, adjusting it for women with breast cancer. Although women “don’t choose their diagnosis, they can choose to go ahead with reconstruction or not, and with the aid of a knowledgeable plastic surgeon they can choose what their options might be,” Dr. Linda G. Phillips, a plastic surgeon in Galveston, Tex., said in a telephone news conference organized by the plastic surgery society to mark Breast Cancer Awareness Month in October. “Then they have that much more power over their lives if they have that power to choose.” But for many patients, the options may be limited because their doctors are not proficient in the latest procedures. Dr. Michael F. McGuire, the president-elect of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, said it is not unusual for surgeons to omit telling patients about operations they do not perform. He compared the rise of more complex breast reconstruction to the advent in the late 1980s of minimally invasive laparoscopic surgery of the gallbladder. “At the time, only a small percentage of surgeons were doing them and doing them well,” said Dr. McGuire, who is chief of plastic surgery at St. Johns Hospital in Santa Monica, Calif. “If you were not familiar with laparoscopic gallbladder surgery, you were still doing it the traditional way with an open great big scar across the abdomen.” Uneven information about reconstructive options is a subset of a larger problem, said Dr. Amy K. Alderman, an assistant professor of plastic surgery at the University of Michigan Medical School in Ann Arbor. Only one third of women undergoing operations for breast cancer said their general surgeons had discussed reconstruction at all, according to a study by Dr. Alderman of 1,844 women in Los Angeles and Detroit that was published in February in the journal Cancer. “In the big picture, it would be great if we could just get doctors to tell people they have an option of reconstruction,” Dr. Alderman said. http://Louissheehan.BraveDiary.com Once patients are so informed, she added, plastic surgeons should tell them of options beyond implants. “The next hurdle would be letting them know that using their own tissue is an option, because my guess is that they are not even getting that far in the discussion,” Dr. Alderman said. About 66,000 women in the United States had mastectomies in 2006, the latest figures available, according to the federal government. And about 57,000 women had reconstructive breast surgery last year, according to estimates from the plastic surgery society. For many of these women, the operations were more about feeling whole again than about restoring their appearance. Implant surgery is the most popular reconstruction method in the United States. Often performed immediately after a mastectomy, it initially involves the least surgery — usually a short procedure to insert a temporary balloonlike device called an expander — and the shortest recovery time. But implants come with the likelihood of future operations. Within four years of implant reconstruction, more than one third of reconstruction patients in clinical studies had undergone a second operation, primarily to fix problems like ruptures and infections, and a few for cosmetic reasons, according to studies submitted by implant makers to the Food and Drug Administration. (Reconstructive patients are more likely to develop complications after implant surgery than cosmetic patients with healthy breast tissue.) Complication rates for newer flap procedures like the one Ms. Hodges had have not been well studied, though many surgeons say they are less likely to require follow-up operations. The most common flap procedure, named a TRAM flap, for the rectus abdominis muscle, cuts away a portion of abdominal fat, as well as underlying muscle containing blood vessels, and uses the tissue to rebuild a breast. The vessels provide a blood supply for the new breast mound. The procedure promises a more lifelike look and feel, but it carries a risk of a weaker abdominal wall and hernia. Another flap method, the DIEP free flap, is the newest and most intricate, named for the abdomen’s deep inferior epigastric perforator vessels. It involves moving abdominal fat and blood vessels, but no muscle. The DIEP flap theoretically holds out the promise of a reduced likelihood of abdominal problems. But Dr. Alderman cautioned that researchers have not yet conducted rigorous national studies that would establish a complication rate. Sometimes the flaps fail and need to be surgically removed. http://www.blog.ca/user/Beforethebigbang All breast reconstructions involve a tradeoff, said Dr. Scott L. Spear, the chief of plastic surgery at Georgetown University Hospital in Washington. “The implants have a lower investment in the short term and a longer-term higher risk of having to redo it,” said Dr. Spear, who is a paid consultant to the implant maker Allergan. “The flaps have a bigger investment in the short run, but you are less likely to revise it in the long run.” Dr. Spear said plastic surgeons sometimes fail to mention the flap options for the simple reason that implant surgery can be more profitable. “It’s really embarrassing to say so, but, from a purely selfish point of view, if you are looking at insurance reimbursement for TRAM and DIEP flaps, it’s a loss leader,” Dr. Spear said. “They really require so much time and effort that a surgeon thinks, ‘Man, I can’t afford to do this.’ ” Nevertheless, Georgetown, long a center of expertise for implant reconstruction, recently hired a plastic surgeon who specializes in the more complicated tissue flaps. A typical surgeon in Manhattan charges insurers about $7,000 for a one-hour implant reconstruction, but for a DIEP procedure that takes 6 to 12 hours, the going rate is $15,500. Although health insurers are required by federal law to cover reconstructive breast surgery after mastectomies, the government does not set private insurance rates. Flap reconstruction typically requires a higher out-of-pocket co-payment than implant surgery. “In certain geographical areas where it is badly reimbursed, it’s a disincentive for plastic surgeons even to do the work,” said Dr. Richard A. D’Amico, a past president of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, speaking of the flap procedures. Dr. Stephen R. Colen, the chairman of plastic surgery at Hackensack University Medical Center in New Jersey, said plastic surgeons might also not inform patients about the flap procedures because they lacked the advanced training in microvascular surgery needed to perform them. “A lot of patients are offered implants because the surgeon does not know how to do the flap, and then the implant fails and they need the flap anyway,” Dr. Colen said. To counter doctors who might routinely steer patients to implants, Dr. Colen started a program at his hospital in which women can meet directly with an impartial physician’s assistant, who goes over the benefits and drawbacks of reconstruction methods. http://louis_j_sheehan.today.com “We sort of wanted to take the flow of the patient out of the control of the physician and put it in the hands of a medical person who has no personal or financial interest,” Dr. Colen said. Dotti Campbell, a retired nurse in Crossville, Tenn., said the plastic surgeon who performed her breast reconstruction after a mastectomy offered her only an implant. “That was his procedure,” said Ms. Campbell. Her first implant developed hardened scar tissue and required replacement. Her replacement implant ruptured. Now she is going to have an operation to replace the second implant, she said. The DIEP flap was developed by Dr. Robert J. Allen, a plastic surgeon in New York, New Orleans and Charleston, S.C., in 1992. Now surgeons at hospitals including the University of Pennsylvania Health System in Philadelphia and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston specialize in the procedure. Dr. Allen and Dr. Joshua L. Levine, who operate together in Manhattan, often recommend a prospective patient talk at length with patients of theirs who have had a successful flap procedure, like Ms. Hodges, the magazine publisher and karate student, as well as with those whose first flap reconstructions failed and required a second procedure. “Patients should not necessarily accept the first thing they hear as the end-all, because that is not necessarily the full story,” Dr. Allen said. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire

WED 24 DEC 2008

vinnie 5.vin.00100 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

99

December 29, 2008

MON 29 DEC 2008

birthday 9.bir.0002003 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire By Louis J Sheehan Esquire

This question is one of the most common brain-teasers in statistics. The secret to the question is that it does not ask for a specific day of the year. So the more people you have, the more likely the next person added to the group will match any one of the other people. http://34819louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com



http://louis1j1sheehan1esquire.wordpress.com
The statistical trick to the mathematical solution is to calculate the opposite question: If you have a room of 50 people, what is the probability of no one having a birthday on the same day? This is much easier to figure:

If the 50 people enter the room one at a time, then each person who enters has a probability of having a unique birthday equal to the number of possible unique days divided by the total number of available days, i.e. 365 (days in a year = total possible birthdays) minus the number of birthdays already taken (the number of people already in the room) divided by 365 (total possible birthdays).

or:    365 - (n-1)
          365

Where n is the number of the person entering the room, so n-1 is the number of people already in the room. Thus, the second person to enter would have a 364/365 probability of having a different birthday (n=2, so n-1=1, and 365-1=364), and the 26th person to enter would have a 340/365 probability of having a different birthday (n=26, so n-1=25, and 365-25= 340).

To get the total probability of all 50 people having different birthdays, we simply multiply the probabilities of each together:

or:     365 x 364 x 363 x ... x 316
        365 x 365 x 365 x ... x 365

Notice that the final probability is 316/365 for n=50, n-1=49, and 365-49= 316. Also notice that the first person to enter has a 365/365 or absolute probability of having a unique birthday: since there is no one else around, the birthday is unique. If you have either a good calculator with statistical functions or a cheap calculator with a lot of patience (guess which I had), you will get a solution of 0.02962642 for the above equation. This means that the probability of all 50 people having different birthdays is about 3%, or said another way:

    * If you have a room of 50 people, there is a 97% probability of two people having a birthday on the same day.

http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com


That is a very high probability! In fact, with only 22 people, the probability is already better than 50%!

The statisticians in the audience will recognize the numerator of the equation as the permutation of 365 and 50, or 365!/(365-50)!, and the denominator as 365 ^ 50. So for any number n of people in the room, the probability of any two having the same birthday is:

     365Pn
1 - ------
     365n